The Big Lead

NFL Draft expert Mel Kiper delivers harsh reality check on Arch Manning’s draft stock

ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. left Arch Manning off his 2026 NFL Draft big board, insisting the Texas quarterback needs another year to prove he can command an offense before going pro.

By Yagya Bhargava

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning and teammates wear Texas sticker on their helmets with a star honoring Texas flood victims during the game against San Jose State Spartans at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium.
Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning and teammates wear Texas sticker on their helmets with a star honoring Texas flood victims during the game against San Jose State Spartans at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. / Scott Wachter-Imagn Images
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The Texas Longhorns entered 2025 with more pressure than any program in college football. Ranked No. 1 in both college football preseason polls, all eyes focused on Arch Manning making his debut as the starting quarterback.

Two weeks into the season, and people are already talking about whether he'll jump to the 2026 NFL Draft. That's either impressive or concerning, depending on how one looks at it.

MORE: Paul Finebaum rips Texas' Steve Sarkisian over awkward Arch Manning

ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper recently shared his take on Manning's professional prospects. While acknowledging the quarterback's obvious physical tools, Kiper doesn't see him declaring after just one season as a starter.

"For Arch Manning, maybe it'd be tempting for him if he does play at that level down the road, if he doesn't, it's an easy decision. But even if he does play at that level, I'm not coming out after one season. History tells us you shouldn't. I would want to go through a year where he's the guy next year," Kiper said on "First Draft with Mel Kiper and Field Yates."

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning
Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning on the field for warm ups before the Ohio State and Texas game at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, Ohio on Aug 30, 2025. / Kyle Robertson/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Kiper's reasoning makes sense when you consider Manning's current development stage. The draft analyst pointed out that Manning is still adjusting to Texas' system and finding his rhythm.

"He's trying to figure it out. If you're trying to figure out college, you're not attending the NFL in April. Forget about it," Kiper added.

Manning hasn't revealed his draft intentions, keeping those cards close to his chest. His grandfather Archie mentioned this offseason that the young quarterback would likely return to Texas next year.

Through two games, Manning's results have been mixed. He managed just 170 yards, one touchdown, and an interception in a loss to Ohio State. The following week brought improvement with 295 passing yards, four touchdowns, one interception, and a rushing score against San Jose State.

The flashes are definitely there, but consistency remains the biggest question mark for someone who entered the season labeled college football's top prospect.

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