Will latest injury to Cubs star suppress his predicted $498 million payday?
At least the Chicago Cubs got what they bargained for.
The Cubs made a big splash last December when they traded for Houston Astros outfielder Kyle Tucker. A three-time American League All-Star, Tucker cost the Cubs rising prospect Cam Brown and third baseman Isaac Paredes, as well as pitcher Hayden Wesneski.
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What they've gotten from Tucker in 2025 could not be more reflective of the player Tucker was in Houston: a .270/.381/.472 slash line, his 148 OPS+ a notch above the 143 OPS+ he compiled from 2020-24. Tucker is 25-for-28 in stolen bases while contributing five assists from right field.
Tucker has also missed significant, unexpected time with an injury. In 2024, he needed three months to return from a shin injury that turned out to be a fracture. In a June 1 game against the Cincinnati Reds, Tucker suffered a small fracture in his hand on a head-first slide into second base.
In each case, the severity of the injury did not reveal itself right away. So it was again this week, when the Cubs placed Tucker on the 10-day injured list with a calf strain — days after manager Craig Counsell predicted the outfielder could return before the minimum 10-day wait.
Tucker is at least a slow healer — hardly the first in baseball history — but his latest injury setback invites an expensive question: how much will it cost him in the free agent market?
Spotrac projects Tucker to earn $498 million on a 12-year contract in free agency this winter. Bob Nightengale of USA Today predicted the Los Angeles Dodgers, who have been an outfielder short all season long as they look to defend their World Series title, will meet the asking price.
But Tucker's case isn't as simple as comparing him to the darlings of the last two free-agent classes. Shohei Ohtani's 10-year, $700 million contract with the Dodgers came with the caveat that he could hit at an MVP level even if his elbow did not allow him to pitch. Juan Soto hasn't been on the injured list since 2021, which surely factored into the New York Mets' decision to sign him for $765 million last December.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. might have been the prize of the 2025-26 offseason before he signed a $500 million extension with the Toronto Blue Jays. He's missed all of 12 games since 2019.
Tucker, meanwhile, has made three separate trips to the IL in the two seasons prior to becoming eligible for free agency. A bidding war could certainly increase the size of Tucker's next payday so much that it renders his injury concerns moot.
Nonetheless, Tucker's agent (Casey Close of Excel Sports Management) might have his work cut out for him — as much as can be expected for the offseason's most talented free agent.
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