Luke Loucks seems destined to fail as Florida State head coach

The Florida State Seminoles appear to have their new head basketball coach in their sights, according to Andrea Adelson of ESPN.

Sacramento Kings assistant coach Luke Loucks is currently the school's top target to replace Leonard Hamilton, who retired after this season, and a deal is expected to be finalized over the weekend, per Adelson.

Loucks, 34, is a former Florida State player under Hamilton from 2008 to 2012. He played overseas for four years before being hired as an assistant for the Warriors. He joined the Kings staff two years ago.

Unfortunately for Loucks, this doesn't feel like the best situation, and could end incredibly badly for him.

The Seminoles are hardly a basketball power; they've made a singular title game, in 1971, and have never managed more than four straight NCAA Tournament appearances (they may have gotten five between 2016-17 and 2020-21, but COVID canceled the 2020 tournament).

The only time they've ever had consistent, sustained success that lasted more than two or three seasons was under Hamilton, who built the program into a consistent threat to win 20 games, and occasionally reach even higher than that. He managed to recruit incredible athletes to Tallahassee, and posted just two losing seasons in 23 at the helm. He'll go down as one of the most underrated coaches of this era, a true program builder in a place where success is hardly guaranteed.

That's the issue Loucks is going to run into. Tallahassee is not an easy place to win. Hamilton found a niche and worked it incredibly well for most of his tenure. He recruited long, athletic players who were tenacious defenders and excellent in transition, but maybe not the most skilled in the half-court game. Can Loucks find a similar niche?

On top of that, Florida State is a football school, first, foremost, and forever. It's not a coincidence that as we moved into the NIL era, the Seminoles' fortunes on the court waned. When the lion's share of the resources are going to football, and there's not much there for basketball, it gets a lot harder to get the guys you need to compete at the top level of the sport.

And with the House settlement coming down, and NIL apparatuses starting to be dismantled, it's going to get even tougher for a young, unproven coach to win consistently at a school where almost all of the pie is going elsewhere. You can bet most of Florida State's revenue sharing money is going to go towards ensuring Mike Norvell can keep winning at Doak Campbell, not towards giving Loucks the kind of support he'd need to build a true winner.

If that wasn't enough, following a legendary coach is always difficult. And make no mistake; Leonard is a legend at Florida State, the best coach the program has ever had. Loucks isn't taking over a program at its peak; instead, he's inheriting a stagnant team who hasn't sniffed 20 wins in four years. Getting them rolling again is going to be a tall order.

Maybe Loucks will work out, maybe he'll find the money and get this team rolling again. But given all the hurdles he's going to face, it may not matter how good of a coach he is.

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