One MLB general manager lit a gasoline match to the trade deadline
The annual Major League Baseball trade deadline has become a hyped event for fans and the media that serve their insatiable appetite for rumors. For the executives that actually execute trades every July, the opposite has happened.
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In 2024, no prospects on Baseball America's Top 100 list changed teams. In 2023, that number was three. From 2017-22, a total of two Top-100 prospects were traded across every deadline combined.
0 Top 100 Prospects have been traded this deadline (so far)
— JJ Cooper (@jjcoop36) July 30, 2025
0 Top 100 Prospects were traded by any team last year at the deadline
3 Top 100 Prospects were traded at the '23 deadline.
Five Top 25 Prospects have been traded at the deadline in '17-25.https://t.co/7fd4ihOhTx https://t.co/cEozLQpE7m
The 2025 deadline figured to be a similar snoozefest. The Boston Red Sox dealt disgruntled star Rafael Devers to the San Francisco Giants in June — a trade that was not prompted by the deadline, but rather Devers' unwillingness to move positions for the second time in one season. Most analysts expected that to be the biggest in-season trade of 2025.
Thursday, San Diego Padres general manager A.J. Preller lit the expectations on fire.
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The Padres acquired All-Star closer Mason Miller, along with starting pitcher JP Sears, from the Athletics in exchange for a package that included the number-1 and number-3 prospects in their organization. The big name: shortstop Leo de Vries, a consensus Top 25 prospect in MLB coming into this season.
Preller last year: “One thing we've never been scared of is: We’re going to trade players. We’re going to trade players that show up in the big leagues ... If we get what we’re looking to do and it works for us both this year and over the next 3-5 years, we’re content with that.”
— AJ Cassavell (@AJCassavell) July 31, 2025
Keith Law of The Athletic ranked de Vries 13th overall in his midseason update. MLB Pipeline placed him at No. 3. No prospect ranked that high had been traded at the deadline since 2017.
Signed by the Padres only 18 months ago, de Vries will now have a chance to be part of the next contending A's team, in whatever city they choose to call home after leaving West Sacramento.
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Miller can throw a fastball 101 mph on average with command. That alone might qualify him as the best reliever in baseball. His affordable contract — $765,000, barely above the league minimum — meant that Miller was available to any team this month for the right price.
No contending team was willing or able to meet that price. Except the Padres.
Since AJ Preller took over as Padres GM, during trade deadline week thru 2024, Preller has traded a total of 56 players to acquire 37 players.
— Robert Frey (@RobertFrey40) July 31, 2025
The combined bWAR of those 56 players: 21.4 (0.38 WAR/player)
The combined bWAR of those 37 players: 13.8 (0.37 WAR/player) https://t.co/pMV7frWdYb
Zigging while others zag is a time-honored strategy for gaining a competitive advantage over one's peers, both inside and outside the baseball industry. But there's a reason everyone zags.
The deadline "is the worst time to try to add players," Dodgers general manager Andrew Friedman said in May. "For us going into this offseason, it was, let’s do everything we can on the front end. Let’s be as aggressive we can be and be in a position where we don’t have to go to market in July."
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Friedman's attitude comes from a simple historical precedent. Executives whose teams are not contending for a World Series championship try — and often succeed — in taking GMs of contending teams (like Preller and Friedman) to the cleaners.
The reason prospects like de Vries do not get traded at the trade deadline is the same reason they are highly regarded prospects in the first place: the odds that they will become a great major league player someday are high. Preller is now left with one Top-100 prospect in his minor league system: catcher Ethan Salas, who's spent most of the season dealing with a back injury.
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For an aging team like the Padres, trading de Vries is a high-risk gamble. Any reward less than a championship — the first in franchise history — will be seen as unjust.
Friedman, whose team won the championship last year, has enough capital in the baseball industry that he can say the quiet part out loud. No executive in his position wants to do business at the trade deadline.
Preller doused conventional wisdom in gasoline and lit it on fire. That fire will either become a metaphor for the Padres' season or the centerpiece of a celebration in the Gaslamp District. There aren't many possible outcomes in between.
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