For Nine Straight Years, an NFL Team Has Gone From Last Place to 1st Place. Who Does it in 2012?
Each of the last nine seasons, one team in the NFL has vaulted from last place (or tied for last place) to first place the following year. Stat sound familiar? It’s because we wrote this post prior to last season. Thanks to the Texans (and Peyton Manning’s injury), the streak extended last season. (Yup, we nailed the Chiefs and Texans each of the last two years.) Here’s the list, with their previous year’s record in parens:
2003: Carolina Panthers (7-9)/Kansas City Chiefs (8-8)
2004: Atlanta Falcons (5-11)/San Diego Chargers (4-12)
2005: Chicago Bears (5-11)/New York Giants (6-10)
2006: Philadelphia Eagles (6-10)/New Orleans Saints (3-13)/Baltimore Ravens (6-10)
2007: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12)
2008: Miami Dolphins (1-15)
2009: New Orleans Saints (8-8)
2010: Kansas City Chiefs (4-12)
2011: Houston Texans (6-10)
The cellar-dwellers from the 2011 season:
Bills/Dolphins 6-10
Browns 4-12
Colts 2-14
Chiefs 7-9
Redskins 5-11
Vikings 3-13
Bucs 4-12
Rams 2-14
I think we can safely eliminate the Dolphins, Browns, Redskins, Vikings and Rams. Why didn’t I put the Colts in that group? I don’t think they will win the AFC South, but it won’t shock me if they’re in the mix. I am a firm believer in Andrew Luck and I have minor reservations about the Texans (tough to say that about a Super Bowl contender, I know), and major ones about the Titans and Jaguars.
That leaves the Bills, Chiefs and Bucs. The Bills will be a very popular choice. If Tom Brady goes down, Buffalo has the defense (not the offense) to win the AFC East. But if Brady doesn’t go down, Buffalo isn’t winning the division. As you’ll see later with my Bucs preview, I really like Tampa Bay this season. I’ll elaborate later.
But I think the pick here has to be the Chiefs. They went 7-9 despite massive injuries. Yes, there are big issues at QB. But the pick would be more about the rest of the division than anything. The Chargers appear to be on the way down. The Raiders are the Raiders. Denver has a brutal schedule, and I don’t think Peyton Manning performs like everyone thinks he will (surgeries, new team, new offense, etc) or survives the season.
In order: Chiefs, Bucs, Bills.
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65 Responses to “For Nine Straight Years, an NFL Team Has Gone From Last Place to 1st Place. Who Does it in 2012?”
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August 17th, 2012 at 10:47 AM
Just a crazy stat. I’d say this, and the 12 over 5 seed streak in the NCAA tourney are two of the more fun stats in the sports world.
August 17th, 2012 at 10:48 AM
New offense for Manning? Gotta figure they run the plays that 18 tells them to run.
Think this is the year that none of the basement dwellers make it to the top though. Just not enough skill/experience at the QB position.
August 17th, 2012 at 10:49 AM
I think we can safely eliminate the Dolphins, Browns, Redskins, Vikings and Rams
RGIII disagees!
/pipe dream
August 17th, 2012 at 10:51 AM
I think it’s the Chiefs, most even playing field in the division and they already have a few key pieces.
I don’t think the QB issues will be as big this season with jamaal Charles back in the mix. might even make the QB look decent.
August 17th, 2012 at 10:52 AM
I think the Colts will double up their wins from last year.
But of that list, I’d go with the Redskins as the team most likely to make that leap from worst to first. The NFC East is always a tough fight. The Giants won it at 9-7 (and the Eagles and Boys tied at 8-8). It’s unlikely that any team in there separates themselves from the rest.
August 17th, 2012 at 10:53 AM
I wouldn’t write off the Rams in what is still the worst division in the NFL. 49ers will not go 13-3 again and Bradford may be the best QB in the the NFC West.
August 17th, 2012 at 10:55 AM
Rams or Chiefs. Definitely not the Browns, Vikings or Colts.
August 17th, 2012 at 10:55 AM
There are so many damn divisions that it would probably defy math if a last place team didn’t get to 1st.
August 17th, 2012 at 10:55 AM
Browns. Clearly
August 17th, 2012 at 10:56 AM
The Onion hits another homerun: “Ground Emerging as Tim Tebow’s Favorite Target”
August 17th, 2012 at 10:56 AM
I’m going with the Bucs. Watching the NFC South year in and year out is like watching bubbles rise and sink in a glass of beer.
I was going to say the Browns, but bwahahahahaha. Come on.
August 17th, 2012 at 10:58 AM
I think Schiano is going to do good things for that team, worst to first against that division will be tough, i would not be surprised if the division winner in the NFC south is 10-6 or 9-7.
August 17th, 2012 at 10:58 AM
the Vikings suck.
/cries
August 17th, 2012 at 11:01 AM
Chiefs seem to have the best chance. Decimated by injuries to key players and playing in shit division.
August 17th, 2012 at 11:02 AM
nfl went to 4-team divisions in 2002, and streak started in 03
August 17th, 2012 at 11:03 AM
Romeo will find a way to fuck it up with the Chiefs.
August 17th, 2012 at 11:04 AM
the Vikings suck.
/cries
I think I got more house shit fixed last year during the 4th quarter than any respectable football fan should. Wife, “This ceiling fan is looking loose” Me, “FINE, I will fix it now!” She knew exactly when to come into the room every week to trick me into doing shit.
August 17th, 2012 at 11:05 AM
My thoughts on the Browns chances to be that team.
August 17th, 2012 at 11:06 AM
Why exactly? For the hell of it? The Giants weren’t great last year until the playoffs, Michael Vick is injury-prone and overrated, and the Cowboys are the Cowboys. I don’t think the Skins are nearly as far away as people think. I wouldn’t be shocked to see them win, and they’d probably be my pick.
The fact that you dismissed them without a second thought, leads me to believe I’m right about that. What are their odds to win the division?
August 17th, 2012 at 11:10 AM
I wouldn’t rule out the Redskins, depending on how RG3 adjusts to the NFL.
However, I think this is the Bucs’ year. There is good talent there and Greg Schiano is a better coach than people give him credit for.
August 17th, 2012 at 11:11 AM
Chiefs are set at every position except QB and HC. It might be enough.
Any word if it’s another Club Romeo? He ran the softest training camps in NFL history.
August 17th, 2012 at 11:11 AM
The Chiefs and Bucs are both pretty good bets for that, as both teams have won/contended for the division recently. I’d probably go 1) Chiefs 2) Skins though. The Bucs were REALLY fraud-y the year they won 10 games.
In reality I could see the circumstances where any one of those teams but Miami, Minnesota, or Cleveland does it. Those teams just have too many others to pass.
August 17th, 2012 at 11:12 AM
+1300 at my book.
August 17th, 2012 at 11:13 AM
Redskins and Bucs are your best bets. Redskins have a very winnable division and a tough defense/running game to have a “flukey” 9-7 year, which is enough to take the NFC Least.
Buccs can win by getting a decent improvement on defense, new coach that the players haven’t quit on and Freeman makes a leap. Their only problem is the division is pretty tough.
Also, don’t discount the Rams While the Off is anemic, they do have SJax, who is a workhorse. Fisher brings credibility (sure its the kind that can win a division at 9-7, but I digress). The defense line is going to be really strong. Sounds crazy, but so did the Niners going 13-3 last year with Alex Smith.
August 17th, 2012 at 11:16 AM
Vikings will be better, but that division is going to be way too good for them to even make some noise.
August 17th, 2012 at 11:18 AM
Eric –
So Saints/Falcons/Panthers are a “pretty tough” division but Giants/Eagles/Cowboys aren’t?
Is that what your comment says?
August 17th, 2012 at 11:19 AM
EVERYONE BE QUIET AND LISTEN WHAT THIS MAN HAS TO SAY.
August 17th, 2012 at 11:20 AM
Per Vegas (RJ Bell), Bills at 33% have the best shot.
August 17th, 2012 at 11:20 AM
Browns need Big Ben to have those injuries crop up, Dalton to remain a soulless ginger, and Flacco to stay healthy for any chance.
August 17th, 2012 at 11:20 AM
Giants/Eagles/Cowboys are a tough division for suckers and people who play fantasy football.
August 17th, 2012 at 11:20 AM
Hey, he’s gonna get you too!
Another one bites the dust!
August 17th, 2012 at 11:21 AM
i’d like to pick the Skins, but with a rookie QB and their brutal schedule i don’t know if i can comfortably do it.
August 17th, 2012 at 11:22 AM
I am not sure this means what you think it means.
/fuck, it probably does
August 17th, 2012 at 11:23 AM
Yes. I think the Skins have a much easier road than the Bucs to winning their division.
August 17th, 2012 at 11:23 AM
All these teams have last-place schedules
/TBL
August 17th, 2012 at 11:26 AM
If RGIII is better than worth a damn the Skins have a shot to be pretty good..Big if, but still possible
August 17th, 2012 at 11:28 AM
I personally hope the Skins fail and suck this year. I know there are a few Skins fans in here, but I hate Snyder so much that I just want him and his team to fail.
August 17th, 2012 at 11:29 AM
i just worry about his next 2-3 years…skins are kinda hampered with the cap and no 1st rounders. gonna have to hit at a pretty high percentage later in the draft.
August 17th, 2012 at 11:31 AM
i just worry about his next 2-3 years…skins are kinda hampered with the cap and no 1st rounders. gonna have to hit at a pretty high percentage later in the draft.
You uh have seen them draft right?
August 17th, 2012 at 11:31 AM
I still remember being all optimistic opening week when they should have beaten the Chargers. I had a solid buzz on at the bar. I should have known right then and there what kind of season it was going to be.
I don’t have nearly the optimism you do this year. The O-line is still going to be pretty weak IMO, there is no telling how AP is going to come back from the injury, and the WR position other than Harvin doesn’t impress me. I just don’t know how they will score.
August 17th, 2012 at 11:31 AM
“much easier”? That’s flyover country ,east coast hate talking more than any kind of analysis.
August 17th, 2012 at 11:32 AM
Brawny lives in LA. He’s also a Steelers fan.
August 17th, 2012 at 11:32 AM
I don’t have nearly the optimism you do this year.
I just said they would be better. 5 wins would do that.
/Team low bar
August 17th, 2012 at 11:33 AM
I know the Skins made the playoffs in like 2006 or 2007. When is the last time they won a playoff game though?
Has no bearing on their season in 2012, I’m just curious. Also aware Google exists but this is more conversational.
August 17th, 2012 at 11:34 AM
The skins have been one of my least favorite teams ever since that fateful game back in 1987. that, combined with the eleventy straight pre-season championships they have as well as Snyder make them completely un-likable.
August 17th, 2012 at 11:35 AM
I wanna say it was a Todd Collins start, though i am not certain they won. I think against the Seahawks.
August 17th, 2012 at 11:35 AM
That’s “AD” bro. You hate Oklahoma enough that you should know that.
August 17th, 2012 at 11:36 AM
In a division full of teams like this, I have to think the Skins are the least hateable. The Giants, especially Eli Manning, are very, very easy to hate.
/that’s flyover country talkin’
August 17th, 2012 at 11:36 AM
That’s “AD” bro. You hate Oklahoma enough that you should know that.
I still like PJ.
August 17th, 2012 at 11:36 AM
OT
If anybody wants to expand their horizons and learn a little of the basics of rugby, I highly suggest this video.
August 17th, 2012 at 11:37 AM
Damm, wrong on both accounts. They beat the Bucs in 2005 with Mark Brunell at QB.
August 17th, 2012 at 11:38 AM
Vegas SB odds:
NFC East: Giants (20:1), Eagles (8:1), and Cowboys (20:1)
NFC South: Falcons (25:1), Saints (15:1), and Panthers (40:1)
The Skins have a tougher road according to people willing to put money on it.
August 17th, 2012 at 11:40 AM
Sure they have longer odds, but come on Rusty, you know those odds are less about what Vegas thinks will happen and more about them trying to make the most money. Also, winning a SB and winning a division are two different things.
August 17th, 2012 at 11:41 AM
Hey, enjoy the anuual anniversary celebration of the 85 Bears.
/time to let it go
August 17th, 2012 at 11:42 AM
he did go to ole piss, which makes him instantly hate-able
August 17th, 2012 at 11:44 AM
There’s too much sharp money out there to play those games, IMO.
On the margin that may come into play (an 8:1 big market team vs. a 9:1 small market, etc.), but those are huge gaps between the 3 teams in each division.
August 17th, 2012 at 11:45 AM
Sean Taylor TD helped seal that win.
/can’t believe he’s been dead 5 years this Dec.
August 17th, 2012 at 11:45 AM
manning new offense?
He just went into camp and told them how to run the drills and where to place cameras for film.
It’s his offense.
August 17th, 2012 at 11:54 AM
I can’t imagine Sharps making enough future bets on SB winner to move the line. They are too smart for that. Most of that money, especially this time of year, is from the public and it is going on typically public teams.
August 17th, 2012 at 12:03 PM
I would say the Chiefs are the safest pick. That division doesn’t have a real favorite and KC should be significantly better this year.
Skins have a tough division and IND, STL, MIN and Buffalo have obvious (at least to me) favorites (HOU, SF, GB, and NE). Plus Cleveland is terrible.
I do like Tampa Bay this year, but probably more as a wild card team because I really like Atlanta as well.
August 17th, 2012 at 12:05 PM
I’ll tell you who it WON’T be…
/does NWO pointing pose at my avatar
August 17th, 2012 at 12:10 PM
Barnwell’s piece on NFL vs. MLB mortality is a great example of perfectly valid statistics used without much scientific thought. The idea is nice, and the statistical tests are surprisingly appropriate. But the methods and analysis of the cohorts aren’t particularly well-thought out.
August 17th, 2012 at 12:10 PM
I’m confused, I thought the Eagles were going to beat the Texans or something in the Super Bowl, so why are we even talking about this? Season’s over. Bama and LSU are going to play for the championship, so why does Kiffen even bother worrying about his vote? Season’s over. Any good books I need to read?
August 17th, 2012 at 1:01 PM
So you can pump them up in this article 12 months from now…?
/”glass half-full” kinda guy
August 17th, 2012 at 1:50 PM
Bills won’t win the division but they’ll be a wild card. Fuck the jets