NFL Week 5 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread

Tom Brady
Tom Brady / Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

The first month of the 2021 NFL season has come and gone. A whole lot has happened, but there's still a whole lot to figure out. That rings true for The Big Lead, too, who suffered a brutal blow to their positive picks record in Week 4, going 2-8 to bring the total numbers to 27-25.

But, as many teams are telling themselves this week, there's still a lot of football left to be played. For us, that means lots of picks left to be made. So here they are.

NFL Predictions Week 5

SEAHAWKS (+1.5) over RAMS

Week 4 was a confusing week for the NFC West and the only real conclusion to be drawn is that the Cardinals are legit. Otherwise it's a toss-up, but Seattle as home underdogs here is too juicy to pass up. Russell Wilson will get it done and both defenses will be facing an identity crisis when this one is finished. Seahawks 31, Rams 27

JETS (+3.5) over FALCONS

This is the first London game since 2019 and nobody has any real idea how these tend to go. Especially with these two bottom-feeding teams. But we say Zach Wilson continues to build his confidence and cries grow louder for Atlanta to tear it all down. Jets 17, Falcons 14


The Bengals are a surprisingly good team so far and Joe Burrow is awesome. But this is Aaron Rodgers we're talking about. The line is too small to even think about betting otherwise. Packers 34, Bengals 24


The Lions remain feisty and the Vikings scored all of seven points against the Browns last week, but Minnesota is home again and their defensive line was all over Baker Mayfield last Sunday. They'll be all over Jared Goff this Sunday, and Detroit doesn't have the secondary to contain Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen for long. Vikings 27, Lions 14


If Teddy Bridgewater can't go after suffering a concussion, it's truly anybody's guess as to how this game will go. Drew Lock vs. Ben Roethlisberger is an affront to the game of football, but home team rules and the Steelers defense should bounce back. Probably. Who really knows? Steelers 20, Broncos 10


Tampa Bay's secondary is depleted beyond measure and will have a lot of trouble defending the pass going forward. Jacoby Brissett is not the quarterback to take advantage of that. Bucs 38, Dolphins 17


Taylor Heinicke engineered an exciting comeback against an NFC South team last week. He won't do so again against New Orleans, who will be playing angry after dropping a winnable game against the Giants. Saints 23, WFT 20


The Panthers have proven themselves to be a good football team even with the loss to Dallas last week. We're still waiting for proof of that from Jalen Hurts and Co. Sam Darnold will continue to be the NFL's most dangerous goal-line rusher. Panthers 28, Eagles 21

NFL Week 5 Predictions


It's been quite an eventful week for Urban Meyer and it's only Tuesday. The Trevor Lawrence experience has underwhelmed to this point. On the other side there's a mean and hungry Tennessee team still stinging from an embarrassing egg against the New York Jets. All the elements are there for this one to get ugly. Count us among the sickos tuning in to see things turn from bad to worse in Northern Florida. Titans 31, Jaguars 15


Bill Belichick and his group just played an intensely emotional game that ended in disappointment. The Texans lost 40-0 to the Buffalo Bills and could be in freefall. Everything seems to suggest this will be a two-touchdown rout. But football is weird. Mac Jones isn't exactly explosive. Leave the back door open because there's a late, fate-changing score waiting to happen. Patriots 27, Texans 19

RAIDERS (-4.5) over BEARS

Matt Nagy seems to content to drive every Chicagoan absolutely insane with his reluctance to hand over the reins to Justin Fields. A hapless Lions team provided some much-needed fool's gold but a trip on the road across time zones will be a rude wake-up call. Let's all vow to meet back here next week and wonder how long this nonsense can continue. Raiders 33, Bears 21


Baker Mayfield may have the goods but Justin Herbert has the greats. Line exactly where it is on this one as it's easy to see either young gunslinger performing some late-game heroics. Here's hoping this develops into a long-lasting and fun-as-hell rivalry. Chargers 25, Browns 24


Danny Dimes continues to impress and this is an enormous line for a division game. Dallas feels primed for their patented letdowns and it might be worth sprinkling a little on the G-Men moneyline if you're feeling appropriately frisky. Cowboys 27, Giants 24


Kyler Murray has been incredible and the Cardinals are the toast of the town. San Francisco has lost two straight by the thinnest of margins. If you think they're going to be bullied and flat a third straight week, well, think again. The NFC West is a buzzsaw and things will continue to change rapidly week to week. Niners 34, Cardinals 31

CHIEFS (-2.5) over BILLS

Any concerns about Patrick Mahomes and this offense were quieted as he threw five different touchdown passes from five different angles. This rematch of the AFC Championship Game should shake out similarly to the one from last year. Prepare yourselves for an instant classic and hammer the over. Should be a good time. Chiefs 44, Bills 38

RAVENS (-7) over COLTS

Indy briefly saved its season and yet feels rudderless. The Ravens love rushing for 100 yards more than anything and have shown the ability to win shootouts and with defense. Hollywood Brown should continue his hot streak and Monday Night Football ratings will slip without much drama. Ravens 31, Colts 10