Tua Tagovailoai could be one of the top picks in Thursday's NFL Draft. Or, if the Miami Dolphins decide to go another direction, he could drop... well, who knows how far. Some people think he's not worth a top 10 pick. Some teams might not even want a quarterback in this draft. Should Tua tumble into the teens and twenties, people will bring up Aaron Rodgers, but they should also mention another guy who fell unexpectedly - Brady Quinn.
Knowing what we know now, comparing Tagoviola to Brady Quinn is downright reckless, but the possibility for a similar slide is there. Right up to the point where the Dolphins could take Tagovailoa with the 18th pick after passing on him early. That was Quinn's experience in 2007, when the Browns passed on him at #3 and instead found him still sitting there at #22. As a karmic bonus, Dolphins fans wanted Quinn at #9, but Miami took Ted Ginn Jr. instead.
Quinn stuck in the green room was an enduring image from the '07 draft. Tagovailoa will be spared that at least. Should he start to slip he can simply cry bandwidth issues and turn the camera off. He'll also be spared the fate of Cole Landry because of social distancing guidelines that will keep him from having a draft day party.
The other possibility with Tagovailoa slipping is that he's the next Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers dropped to #24 in the 2005 draft after the 49ers took Alex Smith first and then nobody else wanted a quarterback. Washington picked 25th and took Jason Campbell and then no one took another quarterback until the third round. Safe to say that the QB situations in most cities is not as strong 15 years later. Unless the Dolphins have really fallen in love with Justin Herbert, they will take Tagovailoa at five, 18 or 26. From there it's up to him to rewrite the narrative.