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Breaking Down Odds For Tom Brady's Free Agency Decision

Tom Brady
Tom Brady odds for 2020. | Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

This week's Tom Brady talk has centered around the NFL's pipedream of him becoming the quarterback of the Dallas Cowboys. While the discussion essentially stems from a Michael Irvin rumor that we later found out isn't all that important, the speculation is riveting. As are the odds — which are often more accurate than statements thrown around on talk shows — for Brady's offseason landing spot.

Odds Shark posted the latest odds that set the New England Patriots as favorites to retain Brady at -250. The number for his departure is +300.

The head-scratching part of the is equation is the team favored to sign the all-timer if he continues his career elsewhere — the Las Vegas Raiders at +300. The Raiders are followed by the Chargers (+400), Buccaneers (+700), Panthers (+900), Cowboys (+900), and Colts (+900).

The Raiders don't make much sense unless you've conspired Brady's chat with team owner Mark Davis at UFC 246 was actually, wait for it, a negotiation. The first step to winning a Super Bowl is winning the division. A surefire way to ensure that doesn't happen is playing in the same division as Patrick Mahomes, who is only getting better. Brady and Jon Gruden also don't strike me as a particularly compatible pair on the football field.

Tennessee is the best football-fit for Brady as he approaches the age of 43. I explained last month that the Titans give Brady the best chance to win a Super Bowl with a run game, a coach he's friends with, talented receivers, and a winnable division. The Titans check off seemingly all the boxes. Tennessee at +1600 is the best value pick on the board.

The Chargers have been the most-talked-about destination for Brady. The team's +400 could change some now that it's official that Philip Rivers is moving on. Los Angeles has the same issue as the Raiders, however: Mahomes. Though they do make more sense logistically and coaching/roster-wise.

+700 for Tampa Bay is intriguing. The Bucs would give Brady as talented a receiving core as he's had in years (maybe ever). Bruce Arians would be able to adjust to Brady's style more so than Gruden or Anthony Lynn. As far as if the Bucs would do it-- Winston is fun and 26, but Brady is legendary and doesn't throw 30 interceptions a season.

My guess all along has been that Brady stays put. But for those "where there's smoke, there's fire" believers, the smoke is substantial.