Philip Rivers moved his family from San Diego to Florida, as ESPN reported over the weekend. While there are any number of quarterback dominos this offseason -- Rivers, Tom Brady, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Jameis Winston, and maybe even Drew Brees, Dak Prescott, and Cam Newton -- let's assume for the sake of this exercise that Rivers made this move with the intention of playing in his new home state. Let's rank the three fits:
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs are best positioned to win now with better quarterback play. Jameis Winston is a profoundly exciting player, but his turnovers are a massive liability. Chris Godwin-Mike Evans is a great 1-2 wide receiver punch.
Bucs coach Bruce Arians had a perfectly dry quote about Winston in late December when a reporter asked him if he could win with another QB: “With another quarterback? Oh yeah. If we can win with this one, we can definitely win with another one, too.’’
2. Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins fought and clawed late in the season to win or compete in games that in September the masses would've thought they had zero shot in, but this is not a team that is a minor veteran QB upgrade away from being legitimate contenders.
Compared to Ryan Fitzpatrick, Rivers was a bit higher in completion percentage (66.0 vs. 62.0) and yards per attempt (7.8 vs. 7.0). However, Rivers also threw seven more interceptions this season.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars would make sense for Rivers from a pure football perspective in the sense that he would be a big upgrade at the quarterback position for them, but the Nick Foles contract is a millstone that will prevent them from addressing that need this offseason.
Foles signed a contract last offseason that included over $50 million guaranteed and a $22.5 million cap hit in the 2020 season. There just isn't any way they can get out from under that, and given what Rivers will cost this season, it's very difficult to figure out how they could make it work with the salary cap.
In conclusion, if Rivers is going to play for a team in Florida, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers make by far the most sense.