NFL Week 4 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread

Josh Allen
Josh Allen / Joshua Bessex/Getty Images

Week 3 of the 2021 NFL season was a fun one. Justin Tucker set a record, Patrick Mahomes blew a game and now the Chiefs are in last place in the AFC West (!) and there are still five unbeaten squads across the NFL, including two in the NFC West who will go head-to-head this week.

Week 3 was also successful from a picks standpoint, as The Big Lead went 9-5 to bring our season record to 25-17. Not bad! But we can be better, and we aim to be this week. Here are our Week 4 predictions and picks against the spread (all odds via WynnBet).

NFL Predictions Week 4


Is anyone else growing a bit concerned about the lack of flashes Trevor Lawrence has shown through three games? Obvious caveats and reality applied, but it's been slightly surprising to see him produce so little with above-average weaponry at his disposal. Compare him to Joe Burrow, last season's cant-miss No. 1 pick, who hit the league running and has notched two rather impressive victories and a close lose in year two. Bengals 30, Jaguars 20


No one should be betting this game with any confidence as Matt Ryan's Ice is rapidly melting and Taylor Heinicke is a different player week to week. When in doubt take the homefield and pray, we guess. Falcons 22, Football Team 19

TEXANS (+16.5) over BILLS

Josh Allen and crew have responded to the Steelers' loss by pasting two bad opponents in consecutive weeks. They are certainly capable of doing it again but this is simply too many free points to leave on the table. Perhaps there's a fumble or special teams touchdown to make this a four-quarter game with the backdoor left ajar. Bills 38, Texans 24

LIONS (+3) over BEARS

If Dan Campbell's defense can make Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens look that bad and Matt Nagy can make Justin Fields look that bad, there's plenty of opportunity for an upset win on the road in what promises to be a gross display of football all around. Lions 16, Bears 14


We may not realize that the Panthers are for real. Matt Rhule seems to have everything on the right track and they're getting a Cowboys team fresh off an emotional and resounding Monday Night Football victory. Banking on a sluggish start to keep things interesting. Cowboys 28, Panthers 24

DOLPHINS (-1.5) over COLTS

Miami completed a pass for a safety on Sunday and still had a better weekend than the Colts, who are in a must-win situation and staring down multiple unproductive Carson Wentz seasons. Dolphins 22, Colts 17

BROWNS (-1.5) over VIKINGS

These are the games Baker Mayfield is now expected to win. Minnesota has been sneaky good through three weeks and has a cadre of skill-position players capable of putting a scare into a defense. Something tells us Myles Garrett isn't going to afford Kirk Cousins the privilege. Browns 27, Vikings 21

SAINTS (-7.5) over GIANTS

Jameis Winston and the New Orleans defense have been excellent in two of three contests. Expecting more of the same against Danny Dimes. Saints 30, Giants 10

NFL Week 4 Predictions

JETS (+7.5) over TITANS

Before you start, yes, picking the Jets as an upset pick is usually a bad idea and especially this year. But hear me out. Rookie QB Zach Wilson has struggled immensley against good pass rushes with ball-hawking secondaries. The Titans... have neither of those things. Their defense is mediocre, which means Wilson will have some time to breathe in the pocket and won't get intercepted on the first iffy throw. Tennessee will still kick the crap out of New York's defensive front, but a resurgent performance from Wilson combined with a Corey Davis Revenge Game means Gang Green covers and Mike Vrabel pops a blood vessel. Titans 23, Jets 16

CHIEFS (-7.5) over EAGLES

Kansas City is this big of a favorite as an away team, which feels like a trap. But let us consider these teams' previous weeks. KC dropped an easy game against a divisional rival due to a combination of untimely penalties and never-before-seen boneheaded mistakes from Patrick Mahomes. Philadelphia got whooped by the Cowboys on national television because their defense was bad and Jalen Hurts struggled to play from behind. Which is more likely to repeat itself? Chiefs 40, Eagles 24

RAMS (-6.0) over CARDINALS

Kyler Murray is fun and so is Matthew Stafford. Something's gotta break, and we're betting it's Aaron Donald who does the breaking. Sean McVay will easily outduel Kliff Kingsbury and Stafford gets some more momentum behind him for an MVP candidacy. The Rams remain the only unbeaten team in the NFCW. The hype train doesn't stop. Rams 30, Cardinals 20


San Francisco's last-second loss to Aaron Rodgers on SNF has to sting. They'll be taking it out on the Seahawks, who just got ripped apart by Kirk Cousins and Klint Kubiak. Kyle Shanahan is going to have a field day. But Russell Wilson always finds a way to keep things interesting when he visits the Bay Area. 49ers 36, Seahawks 35

BRONCOS (-1.5) over RAVENS

Justin Tucker saved the day last week but it doesn't change the fact that Baltimore managed 19 points against the Detroit freaking Lions. Drops were a big problem for the Ravens offense but playing against Vic Fangio's defense is not exactly the pick-me-up receivers need after that kind of week. Denver will defend their homefield and stay undefeated. Broncos 24, Ravens 13


Ben Roethlisberger has looked washed for over a year and now the defense is banged up. The only bright spot for Pittsburgh is Najee Harris, and unfortunately the Packers know that too. Aaron Rodgers won't sweat this one. Packers 31, Steelers 17


We all know Bill Belichick wants to win this game more than perhaps any game in his storied career. He will pull out all the stops and the trickery to do it. But Mac Jones still has a long way to go, Josh McDaniels has decided that lifetime special teamer Brandon Bolden is a crucial part of the run game, and Tom Brady always plays angry after a lifeless loss like the one he suffered against the Rams last week. Patriots fans will finally feel what it's like to be on the other side of a total and utter Brady beatdown. Bucs 43, Patriots 21


It's a "home" game for the Chargers, but until we actually see stands filled with Chargers fans, it is a neutral site at best and a home game for the away team at worst. The Raiders, though, got banged up in another overtime win against the Dolphins last week and their secondary will struggle to handle L.A's cadre of weapons. The Chargers will take down one of the NFL's remaining undefeated squads, but it won't be a blowout by any means. Chargers 27, Raiders 24