NFL Week 4 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread

Jalen Hurts
Jalen Hurts / Scott Taetsch/GettyImages

Week 3 has come and gone. Liam McKeone and Kyle Koster took another tough set of losses and find themselves at 20-27-1, with their first push coming courtesy of Russell Wilson's Denver Broncos on SNF. But the two feel they're ready to bounce back in Week 4.

Here are the Week 4 NFL picks and predictions against the spread (all odds via WynnBet).


Tua Tagovailoa's head or back injury is a mite concerning, to be sure. But the Bengals did not win convincingly over the Jets this past week and Miami recorded a victory over one of the two best teams in the conference. Mike McDaniel's ability to scheme yards out of nothing will be vital to surviving a short week, something Zac Taylor lacks. Building the whole plane out of Joe Burrow and deep passes doesn't always work. But it feels about time for the Dolphins to come back down to earth a bit. A wild game that ends with a last-second Burrow-to-Chase TD is the guess here. Bengals 28, Dolphins 27

VIKINGS (-2.5) over SAINTS

The first London game of the year feels like it could be very ugly. Whatever Dennis Allen is trying to do with the Saints is not working and the Vikings have been unable to shake the Jekyll-Hyde feel of their entire team over the last few years. But Minnesota has exhibited more flashes of competence than New Orleans in the opening weeks of the season and thus we put our money on them. The primary hope is that Kirk Cousins' body does not realize it is playing a primetime game due to the time zone difference. Vikings 24, Saints 16

BROWNS (-2.5) over FALCONS

Marcus Mariota has so far displayed an incredibly impressive ability to turn the ball over at the absolute worst time in three straight games. Outside of that the offense has been fairly competent. The defense, less so. Giving up 4.8 yards per carry ain't gonna get it done against arguably the best run game in the league in Cleveland. The Browns will run all over the Falcons. Browns 30, Falcons 20


How bout Dem Cowboys? Cooper Rush has displayed his ability to keep the trains running on time and the defense hasn't yet suffered the regression everyone expected. The Commanders are still a bit of a mess everywhere and Carson Wentz is not doing his offensive line any favors. Take the Cowboys and the over on Micah Parsons' sack total. Cowboys 25, Commanders 17

LIONS (-6.5) over SEAHAWKS

This line feels awfully high for a Lions team that lost in a very Lions fashion to Minnesota last week. And the Seahawks, while not a good team, have displayed lengthy stretches of average football so far this year. Yet the Lions have been our most consistent pick all season long and we'd be remiss to not quadruple down on them in Week 4. Lions 31, Seahawks 23

TITANS (+3.5) over COLTS

For all the issues the Colts have had defensively this year, they are absolutely elite against the run. This is a problem for the Titans. Yet it's hard to pick the Colts with this line, which feels very reactionary for what seems to be a fluke win against the Chiefs. Tennessee's interior defensive line is monstrous and should dominate, compensating for the struggles the Titans will have offensively. Matt Ryan will hurt on Monday. Titans 20, Colts 13

BEARS (+3.5) over GIANTS

The Giants' performance on Monday Night Football pretty much sums up the team for this year-- it's the best Giants team in a while but it's still not a very good one and Daniel Jones isn't going to bring them back from any sort of substantial deficit. Fortunately they face a Bears team that makes it easy for teams to keep things close due to a lack of passing. But Chicago will enjoy homefield advantage in a game that feels like it will set football back a few decades or so. Giants 17, Bears 14


The Eagles have lived up to their billing as one of the league's best teams. The Jaguars have been perhaps the biggest surprise of the year. Every week has one weird game and we think it's this one. Jacksonville will not only put up a fight the likes of which we haven't seen since the Leftwich days, they're going to leave Philadelphia with a win. Touchdowns scored left and right. Chaos abound. It'll be fun! Jaguars 41, Eagles 38

STEELERS (-3.5) over JETS

Mike Tomlin is doing all he can to clamp down on any and all Kenny Pickett-related conversation, meaning that the Mitchell Trubisky will continue until morale improves. It's entirely possible he continues his streak of .500 seasons on the strength of defense and field goals. It's also entirely possible things bottom out pretty severely here. Which makes beating up on a very bad yet still boisterous Jets team all the more important. Sure, Zach Wilson may make his return but anyone expecting him to hit the ground running should recalibrated those expectations. Like always, it won't be pretty or enjoyable in any way to watch. League guidelines and bylaws demand 60 minutes of play so go with the one that's more consistent in their mediocrity. Steelers 20, Jets 14

RAVENS (+3) over BILLS

Week 4 and we get an honest MVP Duel Game to chew on featuring Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. Buffalo was sapped by the heat and Miami Dolphins on Sunday and the physical toll may linger for a bit. The Ravens can commiserate, having also been sawed in half by the emerging Tua Tagovailoa. A shootout seems inevitable and popcorn will likely sell out at all grocery stores along the Eastern seaboard. Give us the home team and an afternoon free of honey-do lists so we can bask in all the glory. Bills 33, Ravens 31


This is profoundly uncomfortable. The point of betting is to win money. It's not to be a good person. It sure seems like Justin Herbert is one shot to the torso away for being out for the season. So ... we don't feel comfortable surrendering a free touchdown on the road, even to a dud team like the Texans. We don't like this at all. Sorry. Chargers 19, Texans 17


Christian McCaffrey has managed to stay on the field and Baker Mayfield has a victory under his belt now, which is good. Kyler Murray is incredibly maddening, vacillating between being the most electric player in all of football and being someone who should not be entrusted with a franchise. It's a tall task to go on the road and save a season after looking so lost and dysfunctional. Not happening here. Panthers 23, Cardinals 20


Mac Jones won't be playing unless there's some sort of medical miracle and as much and Brian Hoyer delights every Spartan, he's not going to set the world on fire. Green Bay can run the football and extend a lead. Packers 31, Patriots 16


This is a classic case where you literally have to throw the records out the window. Las Vegas is precariously close to being 3-0 and the Broncos are precariously close to be 0-3. Nathaniel Hackett is charting a hilarious course to be the Coach of the Year and will win it if he continues to win games as ugly as humanly possible. As fun as that would be, Derek Carr will respond and force-feed Davante Adams until he doesn't want any dessert. Raiders 26, Broncos 9


Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady have been underwhelming to this point. One of them seems more capable of regaining his excellence. And it's not the one who is 45. An angry Red Storm comes into Tampa and erases the embarrassing loss to the Colts in resounding fashion. Right? Chiefs 31, Buccaneers 20

RAMS (-2.5) over NINERS

Jimmy Garoppolo looked a lot like someone who didn't practice much football before playing competitive football against the Broncos. That's not going to be solved in one week. Los Angeles has its own giant red flags but should finally get up for a game instead of sleepwalking. Rams 25, Niners 20