NFL Week 11 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread

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Well, folks, we did it. We've dragged ourselves up by our bootstraps and are now above the .500 mark at a cool 73-72 after another successful week. Barely, but it counts. Winning ugly is still winning. Thank you for going on this journey with us, and here's to a better second half of the season. Onto our Week 11 picks and predictions.


Aaron Rodgers and Matt LaFleur will not be getting a place together after this is all over. But they may just sneak their way into the playoffs. A come-from-behind victory over the Dallas Cowboys injected new life into frozen hopes. Lambeau becomes a better homefield advantage as the temperatures drop. A stable running game does wonders for an offense. Meanwhile, Tennessee is slugging its way to low-scoring victories while lacking explosiveness. Trusting Ryan Tannehill on the road is not something we're inclined to do in this spot. Packers 27, Titans 20


Chicago finally has a quarterback. Justin Fields has been the most electric player in football over the last five weeks and is capable of sprinting to the end zone any time he breaks contain. Atlanta has been a covering machine all year yet this feels more like a toss-up than anything. We'll bank on the Bears getting a lead and grinding the clock into submission this time after learning a much-needed lesson against Detroit. Bears 22, Falcons 17

BILLS (-9.5) over BROWNS

Josh Allen does not look fully healthy and this supposed Super Bowl juggernaut has a bad habit of throwing games away late. There are serious signs of concern long-term. Not this week, though. This will be a classic Get Right situation with fantasy points aplenty. Bills 45, Browns 17

COLTS (+7.5) over EAGLES

There's no choice here. You cannot bet against Jeff Saturday in this spot. Or any spot until he fails to cover. Indianapolis looked downright good against Las Vegas and Philadelphia is on a short week. Lucas Oil will be somewhat rocking. We've watched far too much sports to not know what's going to happen here. Colts 30, Eagles 24


Now would be an excellent time to predict Gang Green reverts back to the very mediocre side they are. Bill Belichick is going to cook up something extra special for Zach Wilson and it won't go down smooth or without indigestion. In fact, we're putting this one on shutout watch. Patriots 20, Jets 3

SAINTS (-3) over RAMS

Good Lord, how the Super Bowl champs have fallen. No Matthew Stafford would spell doom and at this point it's worth wondering if he can win down there anyway. Yeesh. Saints 33, Rams 16

LIONS (+3.5) over GIANTS

Weird things are happening for our favorite team. They overcame a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit for the first time since 1993. Dan Campbell won on the road. Which suggests they might do it again. New York struggled to put away the lowly Texans and needed six zillion carries from Saquon Barkley to do it. It's a recipe that won't work again. Lions 22, Giants 21


Baker Mayfield is back under center after PJ Walker suffered a high ankle sprain (the third Panthers QB to go down with that injury!) and it is anybody's guess which version of Mayfield we'll get. This pick is based entirely off the idea that giving TWELVE points to this Ravens team is nothing short of insanity. Baltimore is capable of dropping 35 points on Carolina in two quarters like the Bengals did, but the defense has proven extremely unreliable and especially when the game appears to be in hand. A backdoor cover for the Panthers is written in the stars. Ravens 34, Panthers 24


How bout them Commanders! There are still no illusions about how far Taylor Heinicke can bring this team but they are good enough to beat anybody on any given Sunday right now. The same cannot be said for the Texans, who are good enough to hang with big spreads but can't do much against a line like this. Commanders 24, Texans 17


Picking this game out of contractual obligation and contractual obligation only. Raiders 17, Broncos 14


Man. After all that's happened over the last few weeks the Vikings are underdogs at home? To the Cowboys, who blew a two-touchdown lead to a toothless Packers offense? Minnesota is not as good as their 8-1 record would suggest but they definitely are still good enough to merit some points in their favor at U.S. Bank Stadium. The fact that they didn't get any is too ripe an opportunity to pass up-- even if we think Dallas will squeak by with a win because the Vikings used up all their good luck against the Bills. Cowboys 31, Vikings 30


The Steelers have TJ Watt back which means they can execute their preferred style of football-- a suffocating defense paired with an offense that does juuuuust enough to win games. The Bengals obviously boast a much more dangerous offense than the Saints but this feels like the sort of game where Ja'Marr Chase's absence will be sorely felt. Even with the discrepancy in talent between these two rosters it's hard to pass up a five-point home underdog. Bengals 24, Steelers 21


Since these two teams battled in Week 2, Patrick Mahomes has hit another level while Justin Herbert has gone in the complete opposite direction. The Chiefs are clearly working out the few kinks they have in the roster and readying themselves for a deep playoff run. The Chargers, meanwhile, are struggling in pretty much every regard and are dangerously close to losing the season. What we know for sure is that Chiefs-Chargers games featuring Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert have proven to be barnburners pretty much every time. This will prove no different. Chiefs 31, Chargers 27

CARDINALS (+8) over 49ERS

The Niners are most certainly the better team but can struggle to put up enough points to cover lines this big (see: last Sunday night vs. the Chargers). Whether it's Colt McCoy or Kyler Murray under center, Arizona has enough weapons to keep it close for most of the game. Then it'll be time for the Niners' defense to wake up and shut everything down. 49ers 27, Cardinals 20