NFL Week 11 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread

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Welcome to Week 11. The Big Lead, like many other sports media institutions, steadied the ship in the picks department in Week 10 following the chaos of Week 9. It wasn't a great week, as Liam and Kyle went 5-9, but there were some good predictions to build momentum upon (like Niners +4 over the Rams!) and a total record of 64-60 is still positive.

Here's our Week 11 picks ATS (all odds via WynnBet). Let's see how it goes.

NFL Week 11 Predictions


Don't look now but the Patriots have rounded into one of the best teams in the NFL over the past month on the strength of Mac Jones' exponential growth. They crushed the Browns by 38 points and it felt more like natural progression than a fluke. New England is allowing the third-fewest points per contest in the league and has been creating turnovers with great regularity. With four straight looming against playoff contenders, a lesser coach could be facing a trap game. Bill Belichick simply won't let that happen. Patriots 24, Falcons 15

COLTS (+7) over BILLS

Buffalo's early-season stumbles are receding in the rearview mirror. The same can be said for the Colts. Carson Wentz is a roller coaster bettors have a hard time stomaching. But Frank Reich's team plays extremely hard and usually to the level of competition. A four-quarter game looms. Bills 30, Colts 24

BEARS (+6) over RAVENS

One never knows what lies ahead with a Matt Nagy gameplan while Lamar Jackson benefits from one of the best offensive coordinators in the game. Justin Fields has an opportunity to measure himself against an elite quarterback and everything in his track record suggests he'll embrace and conquer the opportunity. It'll take a few bounces and sudden swings but the upset bug is brewing on the shores of Lake Michigan. Bears 29, Ravens 28

LIONS (+10) over BROWNS

Fresh off playing an absurd and horrific 70 minutes of football in conjunction with the Steelers, Dan Campbell's ragtag group gets another AFC North team this Sunday, one struggling to maximize what's left of Baker Mayfield and guarding against freefall. A suddenly prolific ground game may be enough to overcome Jared Goff's complete inability to throw the ball more than 30 yards. Fans of the sport should give serious consideration before subjecting themselves to this one. Browns 28, Lions 20

TITANS (-10.5) over TEXANS

Losing Derrick Henry has inspired Mike Vrabel's team to prove they don't necessarily need him to get where they are going. The offensive attack continues to hum along and they seem to take joy in putting opponents in a torture chamber. That's terrible news for a terrible team. Don't overthink this one. Titans 38, Texans 20


Minnesota remains an enigma. No one except the criminally insane should have any confidence picking for or against them. At least Aaron Rodgers is consistent. The Aaron Jones loss is problematic long-term. A staunch defensive performance against Seattle shows how capable that unit can be. Bank on a second straight impressive performance and some late heroics from Joe Rogan's buddy. Packers 28, Vikings 24


Miami surprised everyone by playing its most complete 60 minutes of the year, establishing favorite status. Mike White looked more like Mr. Irrelevant than a worthy No. 1 overall pick. Throw out all your preconceptions though and steer into the fun. A shootout is coming, Mr. Wayne. Jets 45, Dolphins 42

NFL Predictions Week 11

SAINTS (+1.5) over EAGLES

The Eagles have found momentum in the season's middle stretch through a renewed dedication to pounding the rock with reckless abandon. Unfortunately for Philly, the Saints are particularly good in stopping their opponents from doing just that, giving up only 3.1 yards per carry and merely 656 yards on the ground in total all season. Both marks are by far the best in the NFL. Homefield will keep this close but Philly doesn't have enough juice in the air to come away with a win. Saints 20, Eagles 17


Carolina appears to be revitalized and reenergized by the return of Cam Newton, who will probably start this week after making spot appearances in the team's win over Arizona last week. Washington has a ton of their own momentum after taking out Tom Brady's Buccaneers last week. But the Panthers are far more suited to making Taylor Heinicke's life difficult than Tampa. Panthers 27, Washington 21

NINERS (-6.0) over JAGUARS

The Jags' offense has gradually been gaining some momentum, but Kyle Shanahan's squad earned a huge win on Monday Night Football by running the ball over and over again. They'll continue the momentum by dominating this Jacksonville defense and this won't be a close one. Niners 34, Jaguars 16


This is a game you probably should not bet on. The Bengals got eviscerated by the Browns before their bye week and the Raiders might've just given Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs the confidence boost they need to run rampant in the AFC. Neither squad is in a good place, and the line effecitively makes this a pick-em. So we'll go with the home team. Raiders 24, Bengals 21

COWBOYS (+2.0) over CHIEFS

Hoo boy, this is a spicy line! The Chiefs looked like themselves against Las Vegas on Sunday Night Football while the Cowboys had the get-right game to end all get-right games in an utter domination of the Falcons. Kansas City is a tough place to play, but Dak Prescott looked like an MVP candidate for most of the season and will continue to do so as Dallas solidifies their place in the championship contention talks. Cowboys 34, Chiefs 30


As with the last two weeks, this is another tough bet for Arizona because we don't know if Kyler Murray will go. But here's what we do know: betting on Seattle to cover as home 'dawgs has paid dividends before in this very column, and Russell Wilson will be looking to prove a point after the worst outing of his carer against the Packers. Who wins will be determined by the injury report, but the Seahawks cover no matter what. Seahawks 31, Cardinals 24


The Chargers are sliding and they know it. The Steelers might have to start Mason Rudolph again, depending on Ben Roethlisberger's COVID timeline. It won't quite be a home game for Los Angeles considering how well Steelers fans travel, but Justin Herbert gets it done this week. Chargers 30, Steelers 20


The Bucs themselves proved to us and many others last week that betting on bye week excellence is not a sure thing. However! The Giants always play Tom Brady tough, no matter who's in charge, and it's hard to see that changing with the ever-growing injury list Tampa Bay has had to deal with this year. New York will lose, but it'll be close enough for everyone to wonder if the Bucs should be championship favorites or merely in the conversation. Bucs 31, Giants 23