NFL Championship Games Predictions and Picks Against the Spread: Two Best Bets
It was a clean sweep for the boys as we went 4-0 in the divisional round of the 2023 NFL Playoffs. Our Lions didn't let us down. Nor did anybody else we picked! We enter the penultimate weekend of games with a 59-50 (.541) record and a lot of good vibes.
Here are our two best bets for the AFC and NFC Championship Games, featuring the Detroit Lions visiting the San Francisco 49ers and the Baltimore Ravens hosting the Kansas City Chiefs.
LIONS (+6.5) over 49ERS
Six and a half points???? Six and a half?? After how these two teams won last week? With Deebo Samuel's status seriously in question? Dare we say, ladies and gentlemen, that this is as close to free money as you'll find in the playoffs. It's tough to understand how San Fran is favored by this much but it should come to our benefit.
Jared Goff definitely struggles in the elements but, unlike the previous two contests, the Lions will be using the run game to set up the pass game rather than the inverse. The Niners, for all their defensive prowess, are not very good at defending the run, especially in short yardage situations. Detroit's defense has been in "bend but not break" mode all postseason and done a tremendous job. The Niners' offense looked super not great for a while against the Packers. They are not the unbeatable juggernaut everyone assumed they were heading into the playoffs. Both sides have enough offensive firepower to hang if their respective defenses collapse. The game could take many shapes-- it doesn't feel like a blowout.
This is going to be a competitive contest. Neither team likes to win easy. Both have flaws that could prove fatal. We wouldn't blame you if you wanted to ride the San Fran moneyline, banking on homefield advantage and a regression to the mean for the Niners' offense. But the Lions will cover, and dammit, we're planting our flag: They're going to win. Lions 30, 49ers 27
RAVENS (-3.5) over CHIEFS
It seems so counterintuitive and just plain wrong to go against Patrick Mahomes. At home. On the road. On the surface of the sun in 130 years. Whatever. But that hook is really making us think that they are desperate for bettors to hop on the Kansas City Chiefs. And when you think about how much energy and emotion they expended yesterday over in Buffalo, compared with how relatively easy it was post-halftime for the Baltimore Ravens on Saturday, you can kind of imagine a scenario in which Lamar Jackson finds the end zone with more frequency.
The Chiefs are champions and will put forth a championship effort. Their defense has been as good as any in football. Yet they've yet to face Jackson, who slices and dices against the overall physicality of Baltimore in the other phases of the game and can force things to happen on his terms. He's such a wild card on the ground and he can singlehandedly dominate a contest without gaudy stats.
This feels like his moment because he'll have to do less in order to make it his moment. Points will be at a premium and the turnover battle will be crucial. Can't believe we're doing this but here we go anyway. Ravens 20, Chiefs 16