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England vs Italy Betting Odds and Prediction for Euro Final

Brian Giuffra
Harry Kane, Phil Foden, Raheem Sterling, Jordan Henderson celebrating.
Harry Kane, Phil Foden, Raheem Sterling, Jordan Henderson celebrating. / Laurence Griffiths/Getty Images
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Is it coming home? We'll get into that in a second. But as England collectively recovers from a celebration over 50 years in the making, it's best we turn to Vegas for some insight into who is going to win the Euro Championship between England and Italy on Sunday.

Italy vs England Odds for Euro Final

The odds on WynnBET suggest it's the home team's game to lose, with England coming in as a slight +160 favorite over Italy, which has its odds set at +185. That makes sense considering the game is at Wembley Stadium in London and England have a team made up of international superstars, whereas Italy has, as usual, a highly talented, technically sound team devoid of an individual with a name as recognizable as someone like England striker Harry Kane. Then again the weight of a nation will be on the English stars as they seek England's first major international trophy since the 1966 World Cup.

The implied probability of those odds tells us England has a 38.5% chance of winning in regulation and Italy has a 35.1% chance. The odds for the game to result in a draw after 90 minutes plus stoppage time is +200, giving that a 33% chance of happening. But who wants to bet the draw?

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Italy vs England Prediction and Pick for Euro Final

Obviously those odds suggest it's a bit of a coin flip on who wins the game. England has only beat Italy outright one time in their last eight meetings, with their most recent match ending in a 1-1 draw in 2018, which was played at Wembley. England outplayed the Azzurri in that match and were done in by a late penalty awarded by a VAR replay.

Italy has played its standard tough defense thus far in the Euro and relied on the counterattack to generate much of its offense. Italy was outplayed by Spain in the semifinals, but in classic Azzurri fashion, withstood the offensive onslaught and won in penalties.

England also needed extra time to win its match against Denmark in the semifinals, but was the aggressor in that match. While they do get opened up at times for the counter attack, England's pace should be the difference in this match.

After giving up its first goal of the tournament on a free kick against Denmark, I expect England to keep a clean sheet in this final. You can take the Italy under 0.5 goals at +160 on WynnBET or you can go with England winning at +160. Obviously the latter is the safer bet. You can also throw a few bucks on the correct score being 1-0, which is +600 and it doesn't matter which team wins, as long as it's in regulation. But I see this being a sluggish affair where both teams play conservatively and try to take their chance whenever it arrises.

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