With Cavs Surging, Warriors Are Still NBA Title Favorites in Vegas

The Cleveland Cavaliers look unstoppable right now. They’ve won all 9 games in the playoffs, and if they continue at this pace all of LeBron’s passive aggressive social media behavior will be retroactively justified as keen motivational tactics. Kyrie Irving, the recipient of much of the bickering, had a game-high 27 points last night, and LeBron somehow again looks like the freight train he was at age 26.

So, Cleveland’s surging. With Golden State having dropped Game 1 at home to Oklahoma City, and Stephen Curry appearing a little hobbled (though by no means ill-equipped to compete), I wondered if the Cavs were now title favorites. Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook oddsmaker Jeff Sherman passes along the following current futures odds:

Cavaliers: 7-5
Warriors: 11-10
Thunder: 15-4
Raptors: 100-1

This means that the Warriors are still favored to win the title. A $10 bet on Golden State wins $11; a $10 bet on the Cavs would win $14. (And a $10 bet on OKC would win $37.50, which, to my amateur eyes, looks like the best value on the board, which is not the same thing as saying the Thunder winning is the most likely occurrence.)

Interestingly, these numbers diverge greatly from the current odds on Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight, which as of late last night have the Warriors and Thunder as co-favorites with a 34% chance to win the title, the Cavs at 29%, and the Raptors at 3%. If you believe in Silver’s numbers, the Thunder are a great bet in Vegas. (And the Warriors a poor value wager.)

In case you were wondering, this is what the odds were at the SuperBook before the conference finals began:

Cavaliers: 7-4
Warriors: 2-3
Thunder: 7-1
Raptors: 40-1

So, while the Warriors went from earning less than even money on a futures to slightly more, they’re still the championship favorites.

However you feel about the gambling odds, the Western Conference finals and NBA Finals should both be great treats for all of us.