The Big Lead

Where Will Peyton Manning Play? Arizona is the Vegas Favorite

By Jason Lisk

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RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) has provided odds of teams acquiring Peyton Manning for the upcoming season. Darnell Dockett’s Arizona Cardinals lead the list, which is understandable–they’ve expressed interest through the media, just had success with a veteran quarterback in Warner, have Larry Fitzgerald, and have an option bonus on Kevin Kolb coming up.

Here are the complete odds:

  1. Arizona Cardinals- 19% (+250)
  2. Miami Dolphins- 16.5% (+300)
  3. Washington Redskins- 13% (+400)
  4. New York Jets- 9.5% (+600)
  5. Kansas City Chiefs- 7.5% (+800)
  6. RETIRE- 6% (+1000)
  7. Seattle Seahawks- 6% (+1000)
  8. Houston Texans- 4% (+1500)
  9. San Francisco 49ers- 3% (+2000)
  10. Denver Broncos- 3% (+2000)
  11. Tennessee Titans- 1.5% (+4000)
  12. THE FIELD- 11% (+500)

The biggest movers on that list have been Retirement (odds getting longer), the Chiefs (after Crennel acknowledged interest) and the Arizona Cardinals, who are clearly willing to consider him.

I have already said that I think he should pursue the San Francisco 49ers if they want him, because of the excellent defense and the fact that they were in the title game without a great offense. My impression of that list is this. The top of the list is driven by leaks in the media that the team has interest, plus the need for an upgrade, which has shot them up the board. The value on this list for me is in the Seattle/Houston/San Francisco range, because those teams haven’t publicly made any indications yet, but if they did, their odds would rocket dramatically. They would also be attractive options if the interest was mutual.

Ultimately, though, we won’t know what Manning will value the most, and what will ultimately swing his decision. Will he want to play in good weather, near a place he has a home, like Miami? Will he want to play with great offensive weapons (Arizona) or value the other side of the ball (San Fran, Jets, Houston)? Will the highest bidder blow him away, with guys like Snyder and Ross willing to spend desperately to spark their franchises? Which teams will go “all in” and which will want contract provisions related to his injury?

Who knows. And that’s why no team has more than a 20% chance of landing a Hall of Fame quarterback who missed all of last year with neck surgeries, but who has played for a team that won 12 or more games for seven straight years.

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[photo via US Presswire]