When Statistics Lie: By One Metric, the Jets Are Rated as the 4th Best Team in the NFL
By Jason McIntyre
1. Baltimore 4-1
2. San Francisco 5-1
3. Green Bay 6-0
4. New York Jets 3-3
5. Buffalo 4-2
If you’re wondering how the DVOA is calculated, read this. Also, check this out before reading any further:
"The Ravens and 49ers are narrowly ahead of the Packers primarily due to schedule strength. You’ll notice below that the Packers are number one in non-adjusted VOA, but slip behind two other teams once the opponent adjustments are applied. As great as the Packers offense has been, it hasn’t been that much better than the rest of the league. In fact, it’s not even on top in DVOA, New England is. However, the Ravens defense so far is lapping the field. The Ravens’ defensive DVOA is nearly twice that of the second-place Jets."
Normally I wouldn’t bother fret about power rankings, but anyone who has watched the first six weeks of the season knows the Packers are the best team in the league. Aaron Rodgers has become the league’s best QB (by whatever metric you’d like to use). Sure, they’re 31st in pass defense and have only beaten one team with a winning record (New Orleans in the season opener), but there’s no way Baltimore and San Francisco should be considered better teams at this point in the season.
The Ravens? Clobbered the Steelers in the opener, clobbered the Jets, and clobbered the depleted Texans, all at home. Whipped St. Louis on the road, but on the road against mediocre Tennessee, Baltimore struggled in a 26-13 loss. QB Joe Flacco, through five games, is completing 51 percent of his passes (worse than Grossman, McCoy and Bradford).
I could see a case being made for San Francisco at No. 2 – but only if Green Bay is first. The 49ers, like Baltimore, have issues at QB. Alex Smith might be having the smartest season of his beleaguered career (just four turnovers in six games; Aaron Rodgers is the only QB through six games with fewer), but the 49ers are averaging a meek 171 passing yards per game (30th in the NFL). The defense has been impressive (2nd in scoring, 2nd against the run), and the schedule hasn’t even gotten easy yet (four games left against St. Louis and Arizona).
The Jets. Ah, my Jets. The defense can’t stop the run. The offense has looked downright embarrassing at times. But … their three losses are to teams ranked in the DVOA’s Top 10 (New England is 6, Oakland is 9). All of those came on the road, too. Fortunately, DVOA doesn’t take into account the luck the Jets needed to beat the Cowboys. Where are Miami and Jacksonville, you ask? The other two teams the Jets beat are ranked 28th and 30th, respectively. We’ll know much more about the Jets after the San Diego game Sunday.
Other teams I’d put ahead of the Jets at this juncture: Bills, Patriots (obviously), Giants, Raiders, Steelers, Saints, Eagles.
Teams I’d flip a coin on vs the Jets right now: Titans, Bengals, Falcons, Lions, Cowboys, Bears, Chargers.