Week 10 Picks for Entertainment Purposes
By Jason Lisk
On the other hand, I’ve only picked a Dolphins game correctly once (at Minnesota), haven’t been able to figure out when to go for and against the Bucs (1-5-1), was far too optimistic on the Cowboys but also went against them the few times they played better (1-6), and have been off on the Bills, Bears and Lions (2-5).
Last week, the top picks went 4-1, while the week as a whole was a wash (6-6-1). That brings the record in Games I Like to 25-20-2 (55%), Games I Lean are 25-17-2 (59%), and Guesses are 14-23-1 (38%). Overall record is 64-60-5.
GAMES I LIKE
1. St. Louis (+6) at SAN FRANCISCO, 4 pm. 49ers have just not been very good in the favorites role, while the Rams pass defense should be able to contain Troy Smith and keep this one close.
2. Philadelphia (-3) at WASHINGTON, Monday night. Division rivals in close proximity have reduced home field advantage. We saw this when the Redskins went in to Philly and won as an underdog earlier this year. In these divisional games where outdoor teams are separated by less than 400 miles, when a team is upset at home in the first game, they have gone 20-7 (21-6 ATS) in the revenge rematch since 2000. I like the Eagles as the better team here.
3. PITTSBURGH (-4.5) vs. New England, Sunday night. If I’m going to take the Steelers as the better team, I’ve got to take them here against New England. Should be a fantastic game, but I like the Pittsburgh defense to control NE running game, and for the Steelers to find some big plays in the passing game on offense.
4. Dallas (+14) at NEW YORK GIANTS, 4 pm. I just can’t quit you, Dallas. No, honestly, this is just one of those large lines where the favorite is banged up (WR Smith is out, several lineman are questionable), and now the Cowboys have the coaching shake up, if they didn’t know their effort was unacceptable. I also like the under here.
LEANS
5. New York Jets (-3) at CLEVELAND, 1 pm. I’ve liked the Browns as an underdog, but I think this is a matchup that favors the Jets with the style of defense they play, going against a rookie McCoy and an offense that will try to feature the running game with Hillis. I also think it is really tough to pull off three straight games against the type of competition the Browns have faced.
6. CHICAGO (+1) vs. Minnesota, 1 pm. Dome team playing outdoors, and the weather is finally turning cold in the Midwest.
7. Houston (+1.5) at JACKSONVILLE, 1 pm. This is one of those series where home field doesn’t seem to matter. It’s always risky playing the Jags because you never know who will show up, but I think the Houston passing game gets going in this one.
8. Cincinnati (+7.5) at INDIANAPOLIS, 1 pm. Indianapolis is still without so many key pieces, and the Bengals should be able to run the ball enough to keep this one close.
GUESSES
9. Kansas City (-1) at DENVER, 4 pm. I’d like KC more (I think based on this year and how bad Denver has been recently, the line should be higher), but the fact Denver is coming off a bye to get prepared after such bad play, and the history of these teams at home, make this only a guess.
10. Seattle (+3) at ARIZONA, 4 pm. Matt Hasselbeck should play in this one. So much for the Charlie Whitehurst era getting off to a good start.
11. TAMPA BAY (-7) vs. Carolina, 1 pm. I could envision any number of crazy things happening in this game. Carolina is bad, but is Tampa ready to play the favorite’s roll by covering more than a touchdown?
12. MIAMI (+1) vs. Tennessee, 1 pm. Chad Pennington is the butt of many a joke, but I think he will play better than Henne. Of course, I have no finger on the pulse of this Dolphins team.
13. BUFFALO (-3) vs. Detroit, 1 pm. Another dome team traveling outdoors, and Detroit hasn’t won a road game in forever. I just don’t trust a winless Buffalo team enough to make it a stronger play.
[photo via Getty]