Three Reasons Notre Dame Could Hang with Kentucky
By Jason McIntyre
Saturday’s Elite 8 is set: Wisconsin will play Arizona at 6:09 pm, followed by the main event: Notre Dame vs unbeaten Kentucky at 8:49 pm. Although Notre Dame is an 11.5 point underdog, the Irish will have a very good chance to pull off the upset. Here are the three reasons why.
1. Notre Dame’s 2-3 zone is the entire key to the game. The Irish have no depth inside or out, and don’t have the NBA size to match Kentucky inside. So, zone. Notre Dame center Zach Auguste is probably the most important player in the game, because if he gets in foul trouble – which is often – opponents just attack the Irish inside. Going zone protects Auguste, but also could mean giving up 2nd chance opportunities to the Wildcats, who are 6th in the country at offensive rebounding. Defensively, the Irish are the worst team left in the tournament (100th, per Ken Pom), which is kind of bad news since Kentucky is 6th in offensively efficiency. Pack in the zone, and force Kentucky to make 3-pointers. It’s the one area (165th in the country) the Wildcats are just mediocre.
2. Notre Dame’s ability on offense to spread the floor and force Kentucky to go small will be fascinating to watch. Grant or Jackson will attempt to drive and create, with Vasturia and Connaughton on the wings. Kentucky, of course, has rim protectors galore, so there’s no point in having its other defenders sag to help.
The Irish have been running a clinic offensively all season – they’re 1st in 2-point field goals, 18th in 3-point field goals, and they don’t turn the ball over (3rd). They shot 57 percent against Northeastern (and only won by four), but missed 14 of 20 three-pointers against Butler and needed overtime to prevail, and then posted an incredible 55/47/80 shooting line in a rout of Wichita State. If the 3’s are falling, the Irish can beat anyone (see Duke twice, UNC twice).
Is Kentucky really going to have Towns or Lee out at the 3-point line defending? Because if that’s the case, they’ll get beaten off the dribble. If Kentucky has to go small to keep up with Notre Dame’s guards, then things get easier for the Irish at the defensive end.
3. Experience. Notre Dame has two seniors – Jerian Grant and Pat Connaughton who have had tremendous seasons/careers, and unlike West Virginia, they play smart, seasoned basketball, and won’t be the least bit intimidated by the Wildcats. Grant, the team’s leading scorer, had 11 assists against Wichita State; Connaughton scored 16 points and took 10 rebounds. At 6-foot-5 he’s the team’s leading rebounder, and for my money, is the easiest player left in the tournament to root for. He’s fundamentally sound, a great 3-point shooter (42 percent on the season) and despite his size he always seems to be securing a crucial rebound or blocking an important shot.
The spread is 11.5, which seems high. Ken Pom’s advance stats have it as 73-64 Kentucky. The Wildcats bludgeoning the Mountaineers to death on CBS Thursday is exactly what Notre Dame needed: The media’s going to gush over Kentucky for the next 24 hours, and anything the Wildcats read on the internet/social media ahead of the game will be about how much of an indomitable force they are.
Keep this in mind: Kentucky hasn’t played a single-digit game in over three weeks (that thrilling comeback win against Georgia). Notre Dame will need to play a near-perfect game – no foul trouble for Augusute, shooting over 50% from the field and 40% from three, giving up fewer than 15 offensive rebounds – to be in the mix with less than five minutes remaining.