Teams That Lost Opener Have Made Playoffs 24.6% of Time Since 1990, But What Does That Really Mean?

First, we have to know how frequently winners make it. There are fewer playoff spots than non-playoff spots, so it isn’t uniform. As it turns out, the answer is about 54% of the time if you win the first game.

The biggest reason that 1-0 teams make the playoffs twice as frequently as 0-1 teams is because they are better. (Rocket science) It is not usually because that one result represented the difference between a postseason berth or not.

Let’s just round to a nice even 25% and ask what the factors that might increase the chances of the postseason, knowing we lost game one.

Points For– Eleven teams have scored at least 31 points in an opening loss. Seven of them made the postseason. It’s a small number, but yes, teams that lost while scoring a lot of points actually made the playoffs more frequently than the average 1-0 team. New Orleans (32 points for) hopes that trend continues, just like it did for them last year.

After that, there is not much difference between scoring some points and scoring very few points. Teams that scored fewer than 7 points in an opening loss made the playoffs 20.4% of the time; teams that scored 19 to 30 points made it 23.3% of the time.

Points Allowed– Interestingly, losing while giving up a lot of points (43 or more) and losing while giving up few (18 or less) are positive indicators, while all else in the middle is roughly equal. The former is obviously tied to some of the teams that lost while scoring a good amount of points themselves.

The Bills certainly hope the former holds up, while the Browns and Panthers hope that the points allowed is a positive indicator, especially for Carolina if the offense shows more like last year in remaining games.

Point Difference– If you lose in overtime, it was basically a tie. It should be no surprise then that those teams that lost in OT fared better than average, making the playoffs seven of 16 times. Teams that were blown out by at least 28 points still made the playoffs 25.9% of the time, so the point difference alone otherwise made only moderate difference.

Home vs. Away– This is one of the craziest ones. You would think teams that lost on the road would be better off, considering they have an extra home game. Doesn’t work out that way. 24.8% of the teams that lost on the road in week one made the postseason; 24.4% of home losers did.

Opponent as Playoff Team or Not– We can guess at team quality, but we obviously don’t know which teams will reach the postseason. Using past seasons, when a team lost its opener to an eventual playoff team, they went on to reach the playoffs themselves 23.9% of the time. When they lost to a team that did not reach the postseason, they advanced 25.5% of the time. Thus, it may not matter much who you lose to, recognizing that teams change over the course of the season with injuries and players emerging.

Just remember, last year, the Giants lost the opener to Washington, 28-14. They are the sixth team since 1990 to win a Super Bowl after losing the first game, and exactly 25% of all conference championship game participants lost the opening game as well.

[all data from pro-football-reference.com, photo via US Presswire]