TCU or Baylor? Besides Head-to-Head, TCU Has the Better Resume ... Right?

As the college football world waits for the new Playoff rankings with four weeks left in the regular season, another TCU-related debate is shaping up: The dilemma the committee faces with Big 12 offensive juggernauts Baylor and TCU.

For the surface-level jabronis on social media: The Bears beat the Horned Frogs 61-58 at home on October 11th. If you missed that game, defense was optional: TCU led 58-37 with 10:45 left before falling victim to an epic collapse. The teams combined for 38 points in the 4th quarter.

But going into tonight, TCU is ranked 7th by the Playoff committee. Baylor is ranked 12th. Both improved to 8-1 by defeating Kansas State and Oklahoma Saturday, respectively. There was carnage around them – Auburn (4), K-State (7), Michigan State (8), and Notre Dame (10) all lost.

So in the TCU/Baylor debate, who should be in front?

I thought the most fun way would be to debate this with Jason Lisk and Ty Duffy. I’ll get the ball rolling:

JM – It’s about body of work. TCU got lucky and won at WVU; Baylor lost in Morgantown by 14. Bears played a slightly weaker non-conference schedule. And please, Baylor winning by three at the horn at home after being down 21 in the 4th quarter? I give TCU the slight edge in the rankings.

JL – Okay, so are we talking about now, or how they should be evaluated if both are 11-1 and co-champs and Baylor also beats Kansas State? This is part of the reason that I didn’t like the College Football Playoff committee releasing weekly rankings. Either they are going to look inconsistent, or people will say they didn’t respond to things that happened.

For me, the Baylor destruction at Oklahoma is a game changer, to go with the head to head win. Both teams destroyed SMU, and beat up on a FCS opponent. I’m not drawing a meaningful distinction from beating Minnesota at home by 23 versus going on the road to Buffalo and winning by 42. That leaves the conference games, and if they both finish 7-1, with Baylor winning impressively at OU, TCU winning on a last second field goal at the place Baylor lost, and then Baylor getting that head-to-head win, well, I’ve got to go with that result meaning something. There is a lot of football left, and I’d like to see a rematch for the spot if they finish tied. Alas, that won’t happen, so Baylor.

TD – Decisions such as this are why I have been critical of the committee concept. The decision-making process adds no conclusive value to the decision. The committee would provide an answer to TCU/Baylor, but not a satisfactory one. As with the BCS, the committee will work when it has no decision to make.

Head-to-head should be the primary consideration, but, here, it does not say much. Baylor won a shootout by three points at home after a miraculous fourth-quarter comeback. Vegas gives home teams a three-point advantage. So, we can perhaps consider that result about even or give a very slight edge to Baylor. It’s not Oregon beating Michigan State by three touchdowns decisive.

Next, we look at the schedule. TCU has played Kansas State. Baylor still must play them. That’s the major difference with their schedule strength. TCU will get a slight edge here for playing Minnesota. The Gophers are no juggernaut and may finish 7-5. But, they are still a bowl team from a major conference, that TCU beat by three touchdowns. Baylor’s best non-conference opponent is 3-6 Buffalo who fired their coach mid-season.

How have they played against good common opponents? TCU beat the Sooners by four at home. The Bears crushed Oklahoma by 34 in Norman. On the other side, TCU gutted out a win in Morgantown, perhaps the Big 12’s toughest away trip. Baylor went there and lost by two touchdowns.

This conundrum may resolve itself on the field. As the esteemed Mr. Lisk points out, it’s silly having the committee weigh in with incomplete data. Right now, the best solution seems to be an eight-team playoff.