Tampa Bay Had a 99.8 Percent Win Probability Before the Lavonte David Penalty


No timeouts. Just :15 left. At their own 45-yard line. The Jets needed a miracle to get into field goal range – or at least a 25-yard play – to try and beat the Bucs. What were the odds Tampa was going to hold on to its 2-point lead and grab a victory on the road? According to Pro Football Reference, Tampa’s win probability was 99.8 percent.

You know what happened next: Jets rookie QB Geno Smith scrambled toward the sideline for nine yards and just after he went out of bounds, Tampa linebacker Lavonte David shoved him with two hands, resulting in a 15-yard penalty.

One play later and 24 yards later, Nick Folk split the uprights and the Jets were 18-17 winners.

I’m trying my best not to get excited about Thursday’s game against New England – for first place – but if the Bills nearly beat the Patriots …