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Sean McVay's Offensive Revolution is Suddenly a Conservative Movement

LOS ANGELES, CA - NOVEMBER 25: Jared Goff #16 of the Los Angeles Rams looks on from the sidelines duirng the fourth quarter of the game against the Baltimore Ravens at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on November 25, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images)
Baltimore Ravens v Los Angeles Rams | Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images

It was probably unfair to Sean McVay to ascribe historic levels of genius to him during last year's incredible run to the Super Bowl. And it's probably unfair to suggest he's been exposed as a fraud this year. The Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde nature of Jared Goff's play and Todd Gurley's dubious health have played a major role in the regression back to the mean.

But it may surprise you to see this chart highlighting relative aggressiveness on fourth down by team. Because for a guy whose reputation was built on the perception that he was a fearless and bold revolutionary, McVay sure does play it safer than anyone else.

As you can see, more aggressiveness on fourth down does not necessarily equal more success. The Ravens are obviously crushing it and they're golden analytics gods. But Seattle and New England seem to be doing just fine while opting to kick more often than not.

Having said that, the Rams' go rate is one in a growing line of indictments of an offense that's lost all mojo. One has to figure one factor in not putting the ball in Goff's hands on fourth down is because he simply can't be trusted.

Not great.