Russell Wilson Leads Contrarian Week 5 DFS Plays Based on FantasyScore Ownership
By Jason Lisk
You may have heard about the issues with DraftKings and FanDuel and concern about employees having access to ownership data and being able to play on other sites. FantasyScore is the Daily Fantasy Site operated by USA Today, and they have now started publishing public data of ownership percentages.
How can you use this information? If you are playing a contest, like GPP, where a few top entries win, and most do not cash, then you want to use a strategy to maximize your chance of winning, which may not be the same as maximizing your chance for points. For example, if everyone has almost the same players, then you having those same players will not differentiate your entry, even if those players do well.
Does this mean you shy away from “popular” picks? No, not necessarily. Those picks are often popular for a reason, particular the low cost players where there is a market inefficiency and pricing hasn’t caught up yet. But you can use this information to be aware of where to zig with others, and where to zag to differentiate your entry.
[All ownership percentages are as of 12:15 ET on Friday]
The Popular Star Picks
LeVeon Bell and Jamaal Charles are the two most expensive entries at RB ($8100 each), and are owned in 75% of entries. This is understandable, but expensive. Rob Gronkowski is again, understandably, the second-most popular pick behind Bell, owned in over 32% of entries. Tom Brady is easily the most popular top QB, in over 22% of entries (Matt Ryan at 10% is the next highest expensive QB). At wide receiver, Julio, Keenan Allen, Edelman, and Fitzgerald are in over 15% of entries, among the more expensive options.
The Popular Sleeper Picks
Here are the guys at QB, RB, WR and TE who cost less than $6000, and are owned in over 10% of entries.
WR Allen Hurns ($3600) owned in 28.81% of all entries
RB Dion Lewis ($5700) owned in 20.58% of all entries
WR Allen Robinson ($4900) owned in 19.2% of all entries
WR Kamar Aiken ($2000) owned in 17.7% of all entries
WR Kendall Wright ($3900) owned in 15.74% of all entries
TE Owen Daniels ($4000) owned in 14.27% of all entries
WR Travis Benjamin ($4500) owned in 13.92% of all entries
WR Leonard Hankerson ($4400) owned in 13.24% of all entries
QB Blake Bortles ($5000) owned in 10.91% of all entries
You probably do want multiple players on this list for cheap, even if commonly owned. But mix it with the contrarian picks.
The Contrarian Picks
Quarterbacks
Russell Wilson ($7800) owned in 0.17% of all entries
Brandon Weeden ($4700) owned in 0.45% of all entries
Russell Wilson is not cheap, but he’s still below seven others in cost. The Bengals are 4-0, sure, but are near average in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. What makes this so attractive is that it seems a relatively fair price, but people are drawn to other options. Even if you don’t think it’s a value, you are poised to shoot up the charts if Wilson does well, with few owning him.
Weeden is the much cheaper option, going off as the least expensive starter. Bortles is more expensive and owned way more frequently among those going the alternate cheap route at QB. New England has given up a decent amount of fantasy points to opposing QBs. Who cares if it is garbage time?
Running Backs
RB Eddie Lacy ($7800) owned in 2.85% of all entries
RB Todd Gurley ($7000) owned in 11.1% of all entries
RB Ameer Abdullah ($4600) owned in 1.68% of all entries
RB Antonio Andrews ($3000) owned in 1.68% of all entries
RB Anthony Dixon ($2000) owned in 5.8% of all entries
I include Gurley here, even though he has a decent ownership percentage. I would expect it higher in a GPP format. He’s going to be boom or bust, but not everyone will have him. Meanwhile, running backs have actually done well against St. Louis, but it seems like folks are jumping off Lacy and taking other top backs. I think this is a value spot to zag. I just wouldn’t have both Lacy and Gurley in the same game.
Cheaper options? Dixon will likely shoot up, but at $2000 he is worth it. Antonio Andrews is cheap, could be the goal line back in Tennessee, and is little-owned. Abdullah still projects as a cheap flex play, and very few will have him. He’s also a boom-or-bust type who has home run ability, even if we haven’t seen it much yet.
Wide Receiver
WR A.J. Green ($7600) owned in 1.68% of all entries
WR Antonio Brown ($8700) owned in 1.92% of all entries
John Brown ($4400) owned in 6.21% of all entries
WR Mike Evans ($6600) owned in 3.4% of all entries
WR Robert Woods ($2800) owned in 0.82% of all entries
WR Marquess Wilson ($2000) owned in 0.26% of all entries
WR Marlon Brown ($2000) owned in 0.21% of all entries
Folks are giving the Seattle defense a lot of respect. That’s fine, but A.J. Green is pretty good too, and very few are taking a chance on him. Antonio Brown has fallen out of favor with Big Ben out. He’s still a very good receiver and I expect him to put up better numbers. I’d still favor Green at the price tag difference but these are reasonable, “yeah, there are reasons people might not want them, but they are still capable of big things” contrarian picks.
Further down, Mike Evans has fallen out of favor. He’s a buy low candidate. He’s battled the early injury, and has only 10 catches (on 28 targets), and no touchdowns. Then again, he’s averaging 9 targets a game and in a matchup where every other wide receiver is wildly popular this week, Evans is a good contrarian play. John Brown meanwhile falls in that sweet spot where there are other more popular picks, and he’s kind of overlooked at his price.
For cheaper options, monitor the injury situations in Baltimore, Chicago and Buffalo. If either Watkins or Harvin is ruled out, Woods becomes a cheap and barely used option. Marlon Brown should start this week as well, and while everyone is on Aiken, no one owns Brown for a bargain price. Wilson could benefit with the receiver injuries for the Bears, in a good matchup at KC.
Tight End
Tyler Eifert ($6200) owned in 0.82% of entries
Delanie Walker ($4700) owned in 3.94% of entries
Zach Ertz ($4000) owned in 0.93% of entries
Derek Carrier ($1700) owned in 2.09% of entries
Eifert could be an important weapon, and is still a top 8 TE play, and not that expensive. Like pretty much all the other Bengals players, he is not favored. Walker is cheap, the top TE in Tennessee has been targeted almost 8 times a game.
Cheaper, Zach Ertz has a good matchup against the Saints. Owen Daniels, at a similar price, is owned in almost 15x as many entries. Yes, the Raiders have given up the most TE points. The Saints are 3rd most.
Deep cheap sleeper? Derek Carrier playing in place of injured Jordan Reed for Washington.