Road to the College Football Playoff: Rivalry, Hatred and Generic Trophy Week
By Ty Duffy
Hate week. Rivalry week. Sponsored generic trophy week. Whatever term you want to use, it is here. Last weekend’s fallow should be this weekend’s bounty. There is too much contentious, meaningful football. Monitor your tryptophan intake.
The Iron Bowl
College football’s bitterest rivalry and, for the past few years, its most important. The winner has reached the national title game the past five years. Alabama, 10-1 and ranked No. 1, hopes to make it six. The Crimson Tide gutted out tough wins against LSU and Mississippi State their past two real games. Auburn, season ruined, is reeling after a home loss to Texas A&M and being blown out by Georgia.
Can Auburn keep it close? Perhaps. Alabama struggling against tempo is very last season. Teams that have tried it this year, notably Mississippi State, did not have much success. The key should be Nick Marshall. Can he make plays against Alabama’s secondary to open the field? He did against Ole Miss. He didn’t against Georgia. After last year’s ending, we should note both teams rank in the 90s nationally in Special Teams efficiency. Roll War.
The Egg Bowl
This game is not as vital as it looked a while ago. Still, this is probably the biggest Egg Bowl of all time. Gay Mississippians moved one step closer to being able to enjoy it as equal citizens under the law. Mississippi State remains alive for the playoff. Ole Miss will try to pick itself up off the mat after three-straight SEC losses. The last one, dropping the Rebels from a potential 9-2 to 8-3, could hurt their rivals dearly during the final discussions.
Can Ole Miss pull off the upset? Despite the 30-0 scoreline, the Rebels defense played well against Arkansas. On paper, Ole Miss should be able to slow down the Bulldogs on the ground. The question is whether their offense, without Laquon Treadwell, can do anything. Hugh Freeze needs 4th quarter vs. Alabama Bo Wallace for four quarters.
The Game
It has not been much of one of late. Ohio State is a national title contender, again. Michigan is about to fire its coach, again. The Buckeyes have won 11 of 13 vs. Big Blue, have not lost to them in the Horseshoe since Jon Cooper was coach and, not surprisingly, enter as heavy favorites. They were last year too, when they won on a failed two-point conversion.
Michigan has nothing to lose, which could be scary. Players have not quit on Hoke. The combined scoreline from Michigan’s three Ohio State games under Hoke is dead even. That said, the Buckeyes are better than Michigan in pretty much every facet of football, except stopping the run, maybe. Unless Devin Gardner finds his cape at the bottom of his closet, it’s hard to see Michigan having much of a chance.
Florida vs. Florida State
Florida State has struggled to one-score wins against underwhelming teams in 2014. Florida has underwhelmed in 2014. Win one for Will on his way out? Hard to envision it. This is not an ideal matchup for the Gators. FSU can’t stop the pass. Florida can’t throw. Florida does well stopping the run. Florida State can’t run it. America will be wearing blue and orange. Here is why.
The Civil War
Oregon is two wins away from a playoff berth. Oregon State is one win away from spoiling the Ducks’ season and reaching a bowl game. The Beavers picked off a Top 10-ranked Arizona State at Reser Stadium earlier this month. They did give Oregon a 36-35 scare in Eugene at the end of the 2013 regular season. Marcus Mariota is healthy this time, though he will be playing a decent pass defense in cold weather.
Texas vs. TCU
Three and a half years ago, TCU was excited to be joining the Big East. Now, TCU is Texas’ rebound team Thanksgiving night with a Big 12 title bid at stake. After some high-profile hiccups, Charlie Strong’s message is taking root in Austin. The Longhorns are coming off three-straight emphatic wins, two on the road. They have, by a margin, the best Big 12 defense. The Horned Frogs had a very nervy time at Kansas in their last game. Crank up the Gary Patterson sweat level to “volcanic.”
Clean, Old Fashioned Hate
Georgia and Georgia Tech are both in the Top 20. Both could affect the playoff. The Bulldogs are still alive for the playoff, if they win out and get some help. The Yellow Jackets won’t get to the final four. But, they could eliminate Florida State in the ACC title game. Georgia Tech has won just one of the last 10 against Georgia, but seven of those games have been decided by one score, including the overtime game last year.
Picks
We went 2-3 last week, putting us at 41-29-1 on the season. We’re only picking fives games this week. Thus, you were officially better off taking our recommendations for the entire regular season.
Michigan (+21) at Ohio State… This is a look-ahead spot for Ohio State. The amount of time spent convincing themselves and everyone they’re not looking ahead is testament to that. Michigan has played Ohio State well under Hoke and will throw in everything they have left. The Wolverines shorten the game and keep it respectable.
Florida State (-7.5) vs. Florida… Don’t like the matchup for Florida, as stated above. The Seminoles have an axe to grind, with the Gators, the SEC and the world outside Tallahassee. Florida has a lame duck coach, without much at stake. Also…Florida’s Special Teams.
Penn State (+13) vs. Michigan State… State College is never an easy road trip. Penn State has a great defense, ranking near the top nationally in yards/play, third down conversion percentage and red zone touchdown percentage. It’s PSU Senior Day and the Spartans don’t have that much to play for.
Texas (+6.5) vs. TCU… Texas is on a roll with zero to lose. TCU is under immense pressure with everything to lose. This feels like it will be close. We’ll take the home team and the points.
Washington State (+3) vs. Washington… Washington had attained its customary 7-8 wins. Mike Leach needs this one more. Washington State stops the run decently. Washington runs the most of any Pac 12 team. The Huskies also give up yards through the air against good passing teams. Washington State is a good passing team.
[Getty, USA Today Sports]