Road to the College Football Playoff: Guillotine Saturday
By Ty Duffy
We’ll christen Nov. 8 “Guillotine Saturday.” Six games feature Top 20 opponents. Ten of the teams face potential playoff elimination. From Noon to the Witching Hour, we won’t go more than 15 minutes without very meaningful football. Make sure to work in some light stretching.
We’ll start with our SEC overlords. Alabama travels to LSU. The Crimson Tide control their finish in the SEC West. The Tigers still have a contorted scenario where they could emerge victorious. Five of the past seven regular season meetings between them have been decided by one score. How good is Alabama? The best team they have beaten is…West Virginia? (Inertia plus SEC bump equals benefit of the doubt) How enduring is LSU’s resurgence? We find answers here.
Kansas State visits TCU. Two elite coaching staffs collide. Both teams are in the Top 10. One will lead the Big 12 and remain in playoff contention. This is the last test for the Horned Frogs. Their best opponent after is…Texas. The Wildcats still have road trips to Morgantown and Waco. TCU feasted on turnovers and mistakes against Baylor, Oklahoma and West Virginia. Bill Snyder’s trademark is making sure his hyper-disciplined teams do not do that. Expect Gary Patterson’s towel minion to get some work.
Arizona State hosts Notre Dame, with both residing in the Top 10. A loss knocks either out of the playoff. The Irish impressed while losing to Florida State. But their top wins were narrow triumphs at home against Stanford and North Carolina. The Sun Devils have three wins over opponents that were ranked at the time. But the 35-point loss at home to UCLA, however unfortunate, is glaring. So is Todd Graham’s high-octane head set.
Michigan State plays Ohio State in the B1Ggest game of the season. Will it matter outside the conference? The Spartans lost by three scores to Oregon and nearly blew a huge lead against Nebraska. Ohio State has played no one. The Buckeye offense has coughed and sputtered against anything resembling a defense. This is likely the last (and only) opportunity for either team to make an eyeball statement for the playoff committee. Playoff aside, it will certainly matter. MSU needs this win to cement alpha dog status. A loss would leave Ohio State conference title-less (technically) after three seasons under Urban Meyer.
Oregon, fresh off a dismantling of Stanford, catches a flight to Salt Lake City to face No. 17 Utah. What do we make of the Utes? Their defense is excellent. Their offense has not averaged five yards/play against a power five team. Utah has played five Pac 12 games. All five have been decided by less than a field goal. That includes appreciable wins against UCLA and USC. That also includes a loss to Washington State and going to overtime with Oregon State. The Civil War can get chippy. But a win should see Oregon cruise to the Pac 12 title game.
Baylor vs. Oklahoma is the noon appetizer. It’s not quite the game it was anticipated to be. But, both teams are reputable and in the top 15. The Bears are still alive for the Big 12 title. We’ll see whether their laughable non-conference schedule costs them a playoff shot. Oklahoma’s Sugar Bowl pizzazz did not carry through to this season (bowl hype, gets the media every time). But, a win here would give them a chance to slip into a nice bowl game at 10-2. Oklahoma fans may not appreciate that. Michigan fans might.
Picks
We went 3-3 last week, bringing our total to 34-21-1 ATS on the season. Here are some picks we like this weekend.
LSU (+6.5) vs. Alabama… Les Miles may fart magic in Tiger Stadium at night. We like the Tigers for more tangible reasons. LSU’s pass defense is the best in the SEC, strong enough to limit Amari Cooper and make Nick Saban wary to use Blake Sims. LSU has been vulnerable against the run in 2014. Alabama has not run the ball well in 2014. This looks like a scrappy affair with minimal pass attempts, decided by a play or two. We’ll take the home dog and the points.
Utah (+8) vs. Oregon… This game appeared on preseason trap list. It offers a prime letdown place for Oregon, following a rivalry win. Teams that play Stanford (and absorb 60 minutes of hard hitting) tend not to play well the next week. Utah’s defensive front is just as good as Stanford’s and healthy. The Utes lead the nation in sacks by a significant margin, averaging 4.88 per game. They are second in tackles for loss, averaging more than nine. The Ducks get a battle.
Oklahoma (-5) vs. Baylor… Baylor tends to duff it on the road in conference play under Briles. We still have not seen the Bears do much in 2014. They staged a great escape against TCU at home. They lost by two touchdowns at West Virginia. Baylor’s best opponent otherwise has been Texas. Oklahoma hasn’t lived up to its preseason billing. But, the Sooners have two losses against Top 10 teams by a combined five points. Bob Stoops’ team has regrouped after the bye. They look closer to the team we expected.
Texas (+3) vs. West Virginia… This is a letdown spot for Coach Red Bull and crew, following a self-inflicted heartbreaker against TCU. The Mountaineers take the long trip across the country to Austin and meet the Big 12’s best statistical pass defense. Texas’ offense gets enough traction against West Virginia’s defense. The Longhorns need two wins to reach a bowl game. They get one here.
Washington State (+7.5) at Oregon State… Washington State’s season has been a snowballing of bad luck and poor special teams play. That said, Oregon State has three FBS wins this season. Two were against Hawaii and Colorado by one score. The Beavers got lit up by Cal at home last week. Luke Falk played pretty well after taking over for Connor Halliday at USC. That’s just way too many points in what may turn out to be a shootout.
[USA Today Sports]