Playoff Power Rankings, AFC Edition

I list my average projected wins based on the remaining four games, for all teams with a chance of getting to 9-7, with my analysis to follow.

New England (12.1 wins)
Baltimore (12.0 wins)
Houston (12.0 wins)
Denver (9.1 wins)
Pittsburgh (12.2 wins)
Cincinnati (9.3 wins)
NY Jets (9.3 wins)
Oakland (9.0 wins)
Tennessee (8.9 wins)
San Diego (6.9 wins)
Buffalo (6.7 wins)
Kansas City (6.0 wins)

Analysis:

Let’s start at the top. I still have Baltimore projected ahead of Pittsburgh despite a slightly higher average win projection for Pittsburgh, because the tiebreaker is clinched. As for New England vs. Houston vs. AFC North, it is too early to see any clear advantages. Head to head only comes in if there is a 2 way tie, or if all teams have played each other. The conference record tiebreaker is still in doubt, as all have two losses except Pittsburgh (3). The last four weeks should have plenty of intrigue at the top.

Meanwhile, Denver’s win and Oakland’s loss means that Denver becomes the favorite in the AFC West, in part because of a slightly higher projection (Oakland at Green Bay being the key) and in part because Denver more likely wins the tiebreaker.

That last wild card spot is wide open. The Jets should be a fan of the Houston Texans over the last month. New York is tied for the best win projection among contenders, but has potential tiebreaker trouble (head to head losses to both Oakland and Denver, and 5 conference losses already). Houston at Cincinnati and Tennessee at Houston are key AFC tiebreaker games.

If a team gets to 10 wins, I think they are probably in. The scenarios become dizzying at 9-7 right now. Denver is likely in the best spot at 9-7, because they only have 3 conference losses and hold head to head victories over Cincinnati and New York.

Key Games This Week:

Houston at Cincinnati: Cincinnati is this year’s Tampa from last year, great record against bad teams, no wins against good wins. They need a signature win, not just to prove they can do it, but because it is likely the key to making the playoffs. Houston can start thinking a bye if they win here, while a loss puts them behind New England and Baltimore. In fact, they would move to #1 in win projection, because those win totals expect New England and Baltimore to win this week, while this is Houston’s swing game.

Chicago at Denver: If Denver wins to get to 8-5, and 6-3 in conference, they are going to be in very good shape against most of the other teams. A loss swings them back to a scenario where Oakland is just as likely to win the division.

Kansas City at NY Jets: I don’t think Kansas City has a realistic chance, but if they pulled another improbable upset, they could very well find themselves at 6-7, right behind the Jets, the Bengals (with a loss to Houston), Oakland (with a loss to Green Bay) and Tennessee (with a loss to New Orleans). The Jets can take a strong step forward by winning a game they should be able to handle against Tyler Palko.

[photo via Getty]