Joe Burrow going first overall is about as sure a thing as any thing can get during the vague period leading up to the NFL Draft. The Cincinnati Bengals hold that first overall pick, and most would consider it insanity to pass up the Ohio native.
But are the Bengals completely sold on Burrow? It would seem not. Appearing on the Pat McAfee Show on Wednesday, Peter King said there are some inside the Bengals' building who really like Justin Herbert. If that is indeed the case, King suggested the Miami Dolphins, holder of the fifth overall pick and also in dire need of a signal-caller, dial up Cincinnati's front-office and offer four first-round picks for the right to select Burrow.
King hedged appropriately throughout, saying the move would only be right for both franchises if the Dolphins loved Burrow and the Bengals loved Herbert. And, as King points out, Miami does have an embarrassment of riches over the next two drafts. Giving up four first-round picks would still leave them with one first-rounder left over and four additional second-round picks in 2020 and 2021.
The Dolphins would need to have a crystal ball into which they can peer into the future if this trade went down, though. Almost no individual player is worth four first-round picks in football. If Burrow led the team to even one Super Bowl win, fans would agree he was worth it, but there are so many variables at play that giving up four shots at an elite talent would be a risk no one would take.
This may be the only actual theoretical trade that would justify the Bengals passing on Burrow. The fans may still yet riot, but landing another high-end quarterback prospect and a preposterous three additional first-round selections over the next two seasons is as good a consolation prize as you can imagine.
I wouldn't hold out hope for such epic drama on draft night, but fun to think about nonetheless.