NFL Wildcard Predictions and Picks Against the Spread: Six Best Bets
Like an NFL team rounding into form and playing some of its best ball going into the postseason, we're thrilled about how our picks have jelled over the past few weeks. Some funny business at the end of a Chargers-Chiefs game that didn't matter in the slightest prevented us from perfection but the 5-1 performance moved our final regular-season record to 53-46 (.535). We've been picking the best six lines all year and now will have to pick every single contest regardless of confidence, so hold onto your hats.
LIONS (-3) over RAMS
If you've been paying any attention at all then you know that no website on the face of the Earth has had more confidence in Dan Campbell's team and no other outlet has won as many hypothetical bets backing them. Matthew Stafford returning to the place that still loves him with a team that might be the second-best in the NFC is truly terrifying. So too is thinking about how many times we're going to hear about this storyline in the coming days. And how Stafford went to high school with Clayton Kershaw. Remember that ol' chestnut? Here's the thing, though. Lions fans have waited for a home playoff game for far too long to be scared. Aaron Glenn's defense had made real strides and isn't breaking while bending. All they need to do is hold the Rams to something like 26 points and you'd think Jared Goff's offense can get more than that in front of an insane crowd. It all sounds so simple. Lions 30, Rams 24
BUCCANEERS (+3) over EAGLES
There's stumbling to the finish line and then there's whatever the hell Nick Sirianni's team did from Thanksgiving on. One would have to go back a long ways to find vibes this disastrous so quickly after looking like actual Super Bowl contenders. For some reason Matt Patricia is in charge of something important. Jalen Hurts looks like a shell of himself and, honestly, this looks like a team not particularly interested in winning. Not to say they can't. Hell, they probably should considering that Baker Mayfield is not exactly a world-beater himself and the Bucs have been profoundly gettable. It's just that we can't trust the Birds at all right now. Buccaneers 24, Eagles 20
BILLS (-10) over STEELERS
Sunday's forecast calls for some pretty brutal conditions that will make tossing the pigskin around far more difficult. And we could understand the temptation to take a bunch of free points in the hope neither team will be able to play much actual football. Yet we just saw the Bills crush the Cowboys by keeping it on the ground and TJ Watt won't be there to provide resistance. Honestly, reducing Josh Allen's opportunities to turn the ball over may be in the Bills' best interest anyway. Bills 31, Steelers 6
DOLPHINS (+4.5) over CHIEFS
Consider this not a vote of confidence in the Dolphins (especially with the sub-zero weather forecasted) but rather a vote of non-confidence in Kansas City. We've all been waiting for the Chiefs to flip the switch and turn into the dominant Super Bowl contenders they've been for years, but they never did. If you haven't already accepted they are merely an average team with an excellent quarterback then you need to do so now. The Dolphins limped to the finish line in their own right but betting on a few big plays from Tyreek Hill in his return to postseason Arrowhead seems smart. Combined with Kansas City's inability to pull away from an inferior opponent and we feel good about this staying close until the end. Chiefs 24, Dolphins 21
BROWNS (-2.5) over TEXANS
It is risky business not taking the home 'dawg here but there's a few reason to believe in Cleveland for this matchup. The strongest is their defense. Defense wins games come postseason and this Browns unit is fierce. CJ Stroud is great but is prone to a couple of big mistakes every game, as most rookies are. The defense he'll be facing is more than talented enough to take advantage. On the other side of the ball, Houston should put up a better fight against Joe Flacco than they did a few weeks ago but this Browns offense has generally outperformed expectations down the stretch and the Texans' defense is not quite good enough to bet that they'll put a stop to it. It'll be close, and it'll probably be quite ugly, but the Browns will continue to win games they should not. Browns 20, Texans 17
COWBOYS (-7.5) over PACKERS
This line might feel steep for what feels like a surging Packers team, especially given the Cowboys' subpar performances against three playoff teams in the final four weeks of the season. However, it cannot be overstated how good Dallas has been at home this season. They went 8-0 at AT&T Stadium with an average margin of victory of 21.5 points. Green Bay turned the corner from medicore to good sometime in the last few weeks, to be sure, but they feel like they're a year away from making legitimate noise. Jordan Love still has something to prove and the defense doesn't have a prayer of stopping Dak Prescott in his own building. This will be the highest-rated playoff game of Super Wild Card Weekend-- but it will definitely be the worst game. Cowboys 41, Packers 20
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