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NFL Week 7 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread

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The good news is that we continue an unrelenting commitment to winning half our games, as The Big Lead went 4-5 last week to bring our total record to 38-37 through six weeks. The bad news is that we continue an unrelenting commitment to losing half of them as well. It could be better and it could be worse. Here's hoping we break the tie and start trending in the right direction — like Pittsburgh Steelers or Minnesota Vikings.

Here are our Week 7 picks ATS (all odds via WynnBet).

NFL Week 7 Predictions

BRONCOS (+4) over BROWNS

Baker Mayfield's left arm was in a sling, the team's running back depth took a huge hit and there should be some very real fear that this year is getting away in Cleveland. It seems like Stephen A. Smith has taken an active interest in getting Odell Beckham Jr. out of town and the downside of relevance has reared its head and noticed the red flags. Denver is on a three-game skid back to reality. Vic Fangio would want to win this one 19-17 against an active Mayfield and has a better chance to do that against a backup. Could be a bit of a snoozer but could prove to have playoff implications long-term. Denver 20, Cleveland 19

PACKERS (-9.5) over FOOTBALL TEAM

Aaron Rodgers delivered a line he's always wanted is Soldier Field's swansong. The Packers have looked very much like a Super Bowl contender after Week 1's disaster. Two physical and competitive victories on the road proved their toughness and a return to the friendly confines of Lambeau Field should provide for a breezier and more pleasant afternoon. Washington's two wins have come against the Giants and Falcons by a combined five points. Packers 35, Football Team 17

TITANS (+4.5) over CHIEFS

Some of the Patrick Mahomes questions were answered with a blowout in the nation's capital. Mike Vrabel's team presents a higher bar to clear. But this one will surely be decided when the Titans have the ball. Kansas City, the only team to allow 29 points in its first five games, will have to be willing to endure the brunt of Derrick Henry for 60 minutes. This is a lot of points for a hometeam against a different vintage of Chiefs teams. This is the right side, even if it loses. Chiefs 30, Titans 27

PANTHERS (-3) over GIANTS

Carolina has reverted to the mean but has three close losses to quality football teams. The Giants have been soundly beaten up and down in two consecutive weeks and should show the residual damage. Give me Matt Rhule over Joe Judge to conjure up motivation and break through the bad vibes. When Sam Darnold takes care of the football, and adds some benefit with his legs, he's really not an impediment to winning. Certainly not against the cellar-dwellers at least. Panthers 29, Giants 20

DOLPHINS (+2.5) over FALCONS

Miami had to serve as Jacksonville's offshore entertainment in London and will have to go 9-2 the rest of the way to match last year's win total, which at this point seems more like a 2-9 proposition. And against almost any other team, there'd be real worry. Yet Atlanta is milquetoast and stuck between Matt Ryan and a hard-place, not terrible enough to blow it all up and not good enough to compete for anything meaningful. It's at times like these one realizes how quickly the schedule can go south and they still added a 17th regular season game. Miami 21, Falcons 14

PATRIOTS (-7) over JETS

Mac Jones has proven himself to be immediately capable of competing with Tom Brady and Dak Prescott on the big stage. Though both of those games ended in defeat, they are arguably the brightest glimpse into a possible future that could become a fruitful present. Bill Belichick is getting close to having his back up against a wall here and wants to send a message that rumors of his demise have been greatly exaggerated. Zach Wilson on the road, as the air gets crisper and the fans more desperate, does not make for a confident recipe. Patriots 31, Jets 13

BENGALS (+6.5) over RAVENS

The Ravens looked like the best team in the league in their beatdown against the Chargers. But AFC North matchups are messy, gritty affairs and Cincinnati's run defense is nothing to sneeze at. Joe Burrow delivers the most impressive win of his career to date, in Baltimore no less. Bengals 27, Ravens 24

RAIDERS (-3) over EAGLES

Early returns suggest the Jon Gruden disaster is one of those situations that brings a team together rather than tears them apart. Philadelphia has looked less than impressive in the opening month and change of the season, although they've definitely got something in Jalen Hurts. Las Vegas' push for the playoffs continues. Raiders 32, Eagles 28

LIONS (+15) over RAMS

This looks like a fake line. It is real. And it's hard to blame bookmakers for favoring these Rams over these Lions. But Detroit won't look as lifeless as they did last week in perhaps the biggest game of their season: a Jared Goff Revenge Game. Los Angeles won't sweat out this win but the Lions will do their damndest to keep it close. Rams 30, Lions 17

CARDINALS (-17) over TEXANS

The two biggest lines of the season come in Week 7. Seventeen freaking points seems like a ton, even for Houston. But it turns out their Week 5 uptick against the Patriots was somewhat of a mirage. The Texans are as bad as we expect them to be against good teams, and Arizona is absolutely a good football team. Cardinals 38, Texans 14

BUCCANEERS (-13) over BEARS

Tom Brady on extra rest against the same team he played when he embarrassed himself last year and was publicly ridiculed for not knowing what down it was? Lord help the Chicago defense. Brady is a vengeful man. Bucs 34, Bears 20

COLTS (+3.5) over NINERS

How this game plays out depends entirely on who will start for San Francisco under center: Trey Lance, Jimmy Garoppolo, or whoever Kyle Shanahan has hiding behind Door No. 3? The former pair have injuries they're dealing with and the last is a third-stringer regardless of who it is. Indy is starting to gain momentum, and this will be the biggest win of their season no matter who's playing QB across from them. Colts 24, Niners 17

SEAHAWKS (+5) over SAINTS

Seattle might not be very good with Geno Smith under center, but they kept it close against Pittsburgh at home last night and they'll do so again here. Who knows which version of Jameis Winston we'll get off the bye, but it'll be enough for a win and Taysom Hill will do something weird. Saints 27, Seahawks 25

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