NCAA Tournament West Regional Breakdown: Arizona and Wisconsin are Heavy Favorites
By Jason Lisk
Arizona and Wisconsin met in the West Region Final last year in a classic game. It looks like we are heading for a rematch, with only the seeds for the two teams reversed. It is March, though, and crazy things can happen. This does look like the most top-heavy region, with Baylor and North Carolina easily the two most likely to emerge if one of those trips up.
Just like with my Midwest Regional Breakdown, I looked at the Four Factors, tempo, and overall offensive and defensive efficiency of the teams, and found comparable teams from the past eight NCAA tournaments. A summary of how far each team’s comparables advanced is at the end. Enjoy.
#1 Wisconsin Badgers: Patient (read: slow tempo) offensive team that is highly efficient. Don’t turn the ball over. Get good shot attempts with movement, cuts, and screens. On defense, vulnerable to outside shooting, but rate decently because they limit 2nd chance points and don’t put teams on the foul line too often.
Wisconsin definitely has a distinctive “type” when it comes to leaving fingerprints on the Four Factors. Two Wisconsin teams show up as similar (including last year’s Final Four team) and two others would have before seed adjustments to similarity scores (2010 and 2012 #4 seed teams). So take the similarity rankings with a grain of salt–Pittsburgh’s higher seeded teams also show up as similar due to slow pace and high offensive efficiency–as we know this group can reach the Final Four again. Plenty of similar teams got upset before the Elite Eight.
#2 Arizona Wildcats: All-around great team with no major weaknesses. Have plenty of size, and the best defense among the top contenders this side of Kentucky. Lead the nation in preventing second opportunities. Very good offensively, both inside and outside. It will take a great effort to beat them.
And judging from their similar teams, some teams have done that. Among the major programs, you have three finalists (both from 2008), and others that fell to great performances (Northern Iowa and VCU over Kansas, Georgetown over North Carolina in OT). Over half reached the Elite Eight, and almost all of the losses were of the close variety.
#3 Baylor Bears: Recent vintage Scott Drew teams also have a typecast. They tend to have length and size inside, they play zone defense. They can attack the offensive glass, and usually rely on that to generate some offense. However, they can give up rebounds on the defensive end. Baylor also struggles with turnovers, but can defend the paint.
Two former Baylor #3 seeded teams show up on the comparable list, along with some Pittsburgh teams, some Syracuse teams, and some Georgetown teams, and a Marquette and West Virginia team. Basically, it’s Big East basketball in Waco. The comparables have done above
average for a 3-seed. None of the comparables lost the opener, and 3 of them reached the Final Four.
#4 North Carolina Tar Heels: North Carolina is kind of weird hybrid. They look very much like Baylor, with one huge exception: tempo. Both have size and it shows up in offensive rebounding numbers. Both can give up offensive rebounds despite that size. They are a good inside shooting team, but not outside. The tempo is almost entirely dictated by their offense; they don’t generate many steals, which is usually a trademark of a faster paced team.
So I don’t know what to make of their comparables, many of whom may not be all that similar. For what it’s worth, none reached the Final Four, with Baylor (2010 and 2012) and Michigan State (last year) reaching the Elite Eight. But those three teams did not play at North Carolina’s pace offensively.
#5 Arkansas Razorbacks: This version of Mike Anderson’s 40 minutes is much better offensively than defensively. They avoid turnovers and get on the glass on offense. The Razorbacks still generate a lot of steals, a staple of Anderson’s, but otherwise aren’t a great team defensively, allowing an effective field goal percentage of 48.6%, and ranking in the bottom 50 teams in the nation at allowing offensive rebounds. Arkansas is still in the top 10 in tempo, setting up a potential up-and-down affair against the Tar Heels, if both can make it there.
The bad news? None of the comparables reached the Final Four, and only one reached an Elite Eight. The good news? At least that one was a prior version of a Mike Anderson team–Missouri in 2009.
#6 Xavier Musketeers: They like to get the ball inside to Matt Stainbrook and Jalen Reynolds, both who make over 60% of their attempts. While they have good height, Stainbrook is not a leaper (generous), so they are good at controlling defensive rebounds, but rank down in block shots. Also rank outside the top 200 in both 2 pt and 3 pt FG %.
Two other Xavier teams that were also 6 seeds show up on the comparable list, one that lost in the opener, and another that lost that classic double OT game against Kansas State in the Sweet 16. Only half won the first game, and BYU should be a tough test in this year’s opener.
#7 Virginia Commonwealth Rams: It’s VCU and Shaka Smart, so you know it’s all about pressure. They are again top 10 in forcing turnovers (though the loss of Briante Weber hurt) but if you can handle the pressure and get a shot up, you can have plenty of success. It’s getting there that is the issue for teams. On offense, they are good at avoiding turnovers, and creating points off their pressure.
Surprisingly, the VCU comps won a very high percentage of their openers, and if you are looking for hope against Arizona, you’ve got four cases of Sweet 16 runs.
#8 Oregon Ducks: One of the smallest teams in the tournament, Oregon is very perimeter-oriented and relies heavily on Joseph Young. They are pretty good offensively, and will push the ball, but poor defensively. For a team without true post presence inside, they don’t create many turnovers to offset it.
Oregon’s comps have won these openers half the time, but none of the comparables show up as the type of team that has sprung a big upset over a top seed in the past. Bolstering that view, Oregon has lost their three matchups with Arizona by a combined 80 points, as they just could not compete inside.
#9 Oklahoma State Cowboys: LeBryan Nash is a streaky shooter, but does just about everything, playing and defending a variety of positions. They are short on the perimeter, with both Phil Forte and Anthony Hickey, but those two can shoot (and pretty much just those two from outside). Michael Cobbins is a good shot blocker but they don’t have much size inside, and aren’t a great rebounding team. Thanks to Hickey, they rank in the top 20 in steal percentage. Depth is an issue.
Oklahoma State from last year is the most comparable team to this year’s. Imagine that. Only two of their comparables won an opening game. None advanced past that.
#10 Ohio State Buckeyes: A smaller version compared to past Buckeyes teams, this one also plays at a faster pace than prior Matta Buckeyes teams. The key is D’Angelo Russell, who has been one of the best players in the country as a freshman. Russell provides most of the offense. They have leapers and athletes, and four guys who rate highly in steals (Russell, Scott, Thompson, and Tate).
Their comparables won half of the first round games, but surprisingly didn’t have too many that advanced further.
#11 Ole Miss Rebels: This team is pretty good offensively and not so much on defense. Not a consistent shooting team. Point guard Jarvis Summers has an effective FG% of 37.8% (!), and 5’10” Stefan Moody has taken over 230 three pointers. They don’t turn the ball over, get offensive boards, and when they get to the line, are among the best in the nation. On defense, they are vulnerable to outside shots (which we saw in the first half against BYU) but are solid in the paint with M.J. Rhett and Sebastian Saiz.
Ole Miss’ comps look good for one reason. 2011 VCU–another team that started in Dayton–shows up, so I guess there’s that hope that this team catches fire with Stefan Moody scoring like Joey Rodriguez in the tournament.
#12 Wofford Terriers: The Terriers play at a slow pace, so that will provide an interesting contrast to Arkansas, and they likely need to control the tempo and handle the pressure to compete. Wofford is one of the shortest teams in the tournament, as the three rotating posts (C.J. Neumann, Lee Skinner, and Justin Gordon) go 6’7″, 6’6″, 6’6″, and the guards are undersized. That shows up in the offensive rebounding numbers, where they rank poorly. That happens to be one of the areas you can usually hurt Arkansas, so we’ll see if Wofford can improve in that matchup.
Only two of their comparables won (and one was big-conference Wisconsin in 2009). North Dakota State over Oklahoma in a 5/12 matchup last year was the other.
OVERALL
Here’s a recap of how far the comparables for each of these 12 teams advanced.
Arizona looks like a slight favorite. Baylor’s comps fare pretty well. The top 4 in this region (unlike the Midwest) also look to be the four most dangerous. If someone else below the top 4 makes a deep run, it would be a pretty big upset.