Watch a Devastated Nate Silver Get Knocked Out of the World Series of Poker Main Event

Sometimes the internal numbers are wrong.

Nate Silver, the pollster and burrito enthusiast of FiveThirtyEight fame, played in the Main Event of the 2023 World Series of Poker. Silver was knocked out on Day 6 on a fairly brutal hand that he really stood no hope of surviving once he flopped a set.

Silver saw a flop along with World Poker Tour personality Tony Dunst and Henry Chan, who does not appear to have an online presence. All three had a pocket pair with Silver flopping a set of 6's, Chan flopping 7's and Dunst missing the board completely. Dunst quickly made his way out of the hand and Silver ended up all in and staring at some cold hard numbers predicting little chance of success. In the words of Norman Chad, "No fancy math here, just one out."

According to Newsweek, Silver earned $92,600 for his finish, which would have him finishing in 80-somethingth place, which is pretty impressive. While it's far from the $12.1 million the winner will receive, it's a decent return on a $10,000 investment. It can be hard to last six hours into a poker tournament. Making it to the sixth day is a accomplishment, no matter what the prediction models say.