Monday Read Option: AFC Logjam For Wildcard Spots After Upside Down Sunday

Sunday, in turn, featured a massive shift in the fortunes of many teams in the AFC playoff race. San Diego got a huge win at Baltimore, things broke for the Bengals as they won while Pittsburgh and Cleveland also lost. Buffalo and Houston got must-wins to keep hope alive. Kansas City took it on the chin at home against Denver, eliminating any realistic chances of winning the division. If Miami can win at the Jets tonight, there will be a six way tie at 7-5 for the final wildcard spot with four weeks to go.

How did we get here? Let’s go through it.

SAN DIEGO HANGS AROUND AND CATCHES BALTIMORE

San Diego had a lead for 32 seconds on Sunday in Baltimore. It was the 32 most important seconds at the end of a game, though, and now the Chargers went from a desperate situation to above the fray in the AFC  wildcard. San Diego probably faces the toughest schedule down the stretch of any of the contenders, so yesterday’s win was vital.

Baltimore had a 23-13 lead entering the fourth quarter, but Philip Rivers led three touchdown drives, including the methodical two-minute drill to win it. Rivers went 6 of 8 on the drive, with two other penalties (an offsides negating a sack, and a defensive pass interference call that put the ball at the 1).

He probably shouldn’t have even had that chance. Baltimore kicked four field goals of less than 35 yards in the game, coming up short repeatedly on third down. One came after a delay of game penalty on 4th and 1, and the others came on 4th and 3, 4th and 4, and 4th and 4 in the red zone.

Last year, I kept a 4th down log to track field goal choices versus going for it. Inevitably, you hear about the 4th down failures when the team loses the game. Rarely do you hear complaints about field goals.

So far this year, there have been 36 times a team has gone for it on 4th and 1 or 2, inside the opponent 40 in a one-score game (first three quarters). Those teams are 21-15 (.583 win pct). The 45 teams that have opted for field goals are 25-20 (.555). While those numbers are similar, the situations aren’t exactly.

The teams that have gone for it have trailed more often than the kickers at the time of the decision, yet still have a better win percentage. Three of the teams that went for it, for example, had a 7 point lead, compared to 11 of the teams that kicked field goals. The average was that the team going for it was down -0.4 points, compared to the kickers being up by +1.0 on average.

Also, I hate the label that “math says” something. This is only math in the sense that it is counting real-life events. Reality–that is, everything that has happened in the past–is what suggests it. “Math” doesn’t say anything.

JOHNNY FOOTBALL COMES IN AS BUFFALO HANDLES CLEVELAND IN THE SECOND HALF

Brian Hoyer was featured here last week for his not-so-good clutch day at Atlanta, and he went out in Buffalo and stunk up the joint again. The first half was an exciting 3-0 affair with Cleveland leading. A failed drive that started at the Buffalo 30 after an Orton interception, a Terrance West fumble returned for a touchdown, and Hoyer’s second interception, that set up a field goal and pushed it to 20-3 Buffalo, was enough to get Johnny Football his first meaningful action.

Will he start this week? For much of the year, Hoyer had gotten praised for his work on a team that was running the ball, hitting some big passing plays, and winning more than expected. Just wait until he has Josh Gordon.

Well, he’s thrown 5 interceptions and no touchdowns, while continuing his sub 60% completion rate, in the last two games.

Mike Pettine faces a big decision, as the Browns, despite the loss, are very much in playoff contention. Go to unpredictable Johnny Manziel, or stick with the hometown veteran who says the right things, but sometimes throws to the wrong people?

I can tell you who I want–the guy that will make for entertainment, no matter which way it goes.

PITTSBURGH CONTINUES ITS CRAZY WAYS

New Orleans came in on a three-game losing streak at home, and then had to travel to the cold in Pittsburgh. Apparently, the Steelers thought the Saints were a bad team, because they played like they did against the Jaguars, Titans, and Bucs.

It squandered a big game from LeVeon Bell, who had 95 rushing yards and 159 receiving yards, and is quickly turning into the “best all-around back in football” in a year when DeMarco Murray started off dominating. (Bell is now only 81 yards behind Murray in total yards from scrimmage).

Here’s the list of other backs to have at least 250 yards from scrimmage while getting at least 90 yards both rushing and receiving. The last five to do it before Bell: Steven Jackson, Priest Holmes (2x), Thurman Thomas, Herschel Walker, and James Brooks.

RYAN FITZPATRICK THROWS SIX TOUCHDOWNS, OF COURSE

Houston beating the Titans to get to 6-6 and just behind the traffic jam for the final wildcard spot is not surprising. Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing six touchdown passes, just weeks after being benched for Ryan Mallett, when he had 11 total in 9 other starts, is.

Now Matt Flynn has company in the “did he really throw 6 touchdowns in a game?” club.

CINCINNATI SURVIVES A SICK PERFORMANCE AT TAMPA

Andy Dalton threw three interceptions and turned in another stinker of a performance at woeful Tampa Bay, but at least he had an excuse.

The Cincinnati Bengals continue to be quite an enigma. On Sunday, they simultaneously managed to cast continued doubt about their quality while vastly improving their standing for a playoff spot with every other team in the division losing.

[RELATED: Marvin Lewis Illegal Challenge Yields Win for Bengals]

Remember when Cincinnati was the “best team in football” at 3-0 before traveling to New England? Since then, they still have a winning record, but haven’t consistently looked good. Three of the results have come against teams that have proven pretty bad: Carolina, Jacksonville, and Tampa Bay. Cincinnati is only +11 against those teams battling for top 5 picks.

The rest includes a mix of good (wins at Houston and New Orleans) and bad (terrible performances against New England, Indianapolis, and Cleveland). The Bengals have a game and half lead over the AFC North, and now play Pittsburgh twice. They also sit squarely in the middle of the league in quality and don’t inspire much confidence when it comes to another big game.

[GIFs by Michael Shamburger]