Momentum and Hot Teams Entering the NFL Playoffs Are a Myth
By Jason Lisk
You will hear plenty of talk in the coming weeks about momentum and which teams are hot. I’m here to tell you that it does not matter if you are trying to predict the future. There is no evidence that the team hotness in December translates to January. It is only useful as a description of what just happened.
In fact, many of the teams that are described as being “hot” in the playoffs were decidedly not so as the season wound to an end.
I went back through the last decade of playoff teams and compared their record over the final six games versus the record in the first ten games. Those with the largest differences in win percentage were categorized as hot or cold. For example, the hottest teams were Green Bay in 2016 (6-0 after a 4-6 start when they ran the table) and Washington in 2012 (6-0 after a 4-6 start in RGIII’s rookie year).
The ten hottest teams at the end of the year went 12-10 in the postseason. One reached a Super Bowl (the 2014 Seahawks who finished 6-0 after a 6-4 start), none won it, and five went to a championship game.
Compare that to the coldest teams. The ten coldest at the end of the season went 12-8 in the postseason, with three advancing to a Super Bowl (2009 Saints, 2012 Ravens, and 2008 Cardinals) with two of them winning. Five also reached a championship game.
Expand it out to the 20 hottest and coldest plus ties (which actually gets us 30 “hot” teams and 27 “cold” teams), and it doesn’t get any better for the proponents of going into the playoffs with momentum.
The hot teams went 24-30 in the playoffs, with none winning a Super Bowl. That’s the 30 teams with the best relative win percentage over the last part of the season–out of 120 playoff teams in that span. None.
Three of them reached a Super Bowl–the 2016 Falcons and 2011 Patriots joined the aforementioned Seahawks.
Meanwhile, the “cold” teams had three Super Bowl Champs (Green Bay in 2010 in addition to New Orleans and Baltimore), and five reach the Super Bowl. They collectively went 30-24 in the postseason.
Could a “hot” team go on a run this year? Sure. But is there evidence that how a team is playing in December relative to the rest of their season is a general indicator of postseason success? No. There is not. Keep this in mind when people are writing off whichever team is limping into the postseason, or surging over these last two weeks.