Media Member's 2010 NCAA Tournament Bracket You Want to Follow? Probably John Smoltz
By Geoff Decker
Maybe not all of them. With the limited data that could be found, here’s a wrap-up at how some analysts have done predicting the Final Four in the past two NCAA tournaments:
– Although not a college basketball analyst, John Smoltz – newly hired by TBS – has picked 3 of 4 Final Four teams each of the past two years. Better yet, he is perfect in the Championship games, picking Kansas over Memphis in 2008 and UNC over Michigan State last year. No one comes close to this precision. Smoltz has yet to make his picks this year.
– In 2008’s chalky tournament, during which all four #1 seeds advanced to the Final Four, Joe Lunardi pick three of four teams: Kansas, UNC, UCLA. He failed to pick a single Final Four in last year’s tourney. His picks: Louisville, Memphis, Gonzaga, Duke.
– Jay Bilas’ 2008 Final Four was a rarity in that it correctly placed all four #1 seeds, a first ever for the tournament. Last year he fared worse, picking only UNC to advance to the Final Four.
– Seth Davis has been mediocre over the last couple years, going 2 of 4 in 2008 (Kansas, UCLA) and 1 of 4 last year (UNC).
– Politicians Barack Obama and John McCain have been predictably bland in their picks. Both picked UNC to win it all the last two years – North Carolina was a huge swing state in the 2008 election – and both went identically 1 of 4 for Final Four teams last year, missing on Louisville, Pittsburgh and Memphis.
– In 2008, when everyone was picking UCLA or UNC, a majority of ESPN’s crew (Bilas, Hubert Davis, Fran Fraschilla, Doug Gottlieb) picked Kansas to win it all.
– TBL’s Jason McIntyre, whose NFL picks were among the most accurate last season, is a mere 4 of 8 over the last two years. In 2008, his picks were UCLA, Stanford, Louisville and Georgetown; In 2009, he picked Pitt, UNC, Michigan State and UConn. [Ed. In my defense, those ’08 picks were the knee-jerk ones after the brackets were announced. Sadly, I couldn’t find my actual picks. Stanford? Really?]
– ESPN’s Dick Vitale: 2 of 4 both in 2008 (UNC, UCLA) and 2009 (UConn, UNC).
– Yahoo!’s Dan Wetzel: 2 of 4 in 2008 (UNC, Kansas); 1 of 4 in 2009 (UConn).
– SI’s Luke Winn: 2 of 4 in 2008 (UCLA, Kansas); 1 of 4 in 2009 (UNC)
This is by no means a comprehensive set of data and I invite people to post links to other predictions in the comments section. Be sure to write out the actual predictions so if links break, there’s some record.
We’ll be keeping track of all these guys and more for this year’s tournament and let you know who did the best.