March Madness: Projecting the NCAA Tournament Bracket (Pre-Championship Week Edition)

So you can judge for yourself, I list their records, their RPI (because the committee only uses that as a guide except they follow it a lot) and I also list their record against other at-large or bubble teams, along with the win percentage against other teams. At the top, I have Michigan State getting the final #1 seed, pending either Duke or North Carolina running the table and sweeping both of their potential remaining contests.

#1 seeds: Kentucky*, Syracuse*, Kansas*, Michigan State*

#2 seeds: Missouri, Duke*, North Carolina, Ohio State

#3 seeds: Baylor, Georgetown, Marquette, Michigan

#4 seeds: Indiana, Wisconsin, Wichita State*, Temple*

#5 seeds: Murray State*, UNLV*, Memphis*, Florida

#6 seeds: Gonzaga*, Florida State, Vanderbilt, Louisville

#7 seeds: Creighton, New Mexico, Iowa State, Notre Dame

#8 seeds: San Diego State, Southern Miss, Kansas State, St. Louis

#9 seeds: Harvard*, Alabama, St. Mary’s, Purdue

#10 seeds: California*, Virginia, Long Beach State*, Oregon

#11 seeds: Iona*, Colorado State, Washington, South Florida

#12 seeds: Seton Hall, Oral Roberts*, BYU, Texas

#13 seeds: Drexel*, Cincinnati, Northwestern vs VCU, Connecticut vs Miami

#14 seeds: Middle Tennessee State*, Belmont*, Nevada*, Davidson*

#15 seeds: Akron*, Cleveland State*, Montana*, Bucknell*

#16 seeds: Wagner*, UT-Arlington*, UNC-Asheville* vs Mississippi Valley State,*, Stony Brook* vs Savannah State

BUBBLE TEAMS SUMMARY

There was much buzz about Virginia being in trouble with their its to Florida State. The RPI isn’t great, but while the knock is that they haven’t beaten anyone, coming up just short in several big games, they still have more wins and a better win percentage against other potential at-large teams than most of the bubble teams below them. If they are really in trouble right now, then who? Arizona? (1 win against a tournament at-large contender), St. Joseph’s? (way more bad losses than Virginia). They don’t want to lose at Maryland and in the first ACC game both, but they are safer than people let on. We know the true bubble will shrink, so while it falls between Miami and West Virginia in my bracket right now, it will close down about 3 spots, to closer to the VCU/UCONN cut line.

[photo via US Presswire]