Joes vs. Pros Breakdown for NFL Week 17: Sharp Money on the Vikings

Welcome back for Week 17 of the NFL Joes vs. Pros breakdown. If you are interested in who the “sharp” money is on, or if games have reverse line movement, this is the place to be. This should not be the end all be all for your wagers, but just another tool to consider while you are putting your card together. Sports Insights is where I get my percentages from.

Before we jump into it, some general betting terms to know:

Joes: Who the general public is overwhelming betting on. Around 60% or higher is a good baseline.

Pros: Sharps, Wiseguys, Syndicates, big bettors, whatever you want to call them. Basically, who the big money is on in the game.

Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the majority of bets are on one side, but the line moves in the opposite direction. Usually an indicator of “smart” money.

If you tailed the sharps last week, you would’ve gone 0-1 (17-8 YTD), as the Bengals covered on a nasty backdoor against the Browns. Today, one game fit both the Joes vs. Pros discrepancy and reverse line movement. Full disclosure, Week 17 has a lot of variance due to starters resting, motivation, and playoff positioning:

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-6)

55% of the public is on the Bears, but the “Pro” money has come in on Vikings (67%), driving this line up from -4 to -6. This indicates huge reverse line movement on the Vikings. Some of this can be attributed to the possibility of the Bears resting their starters if the Rams are up big at halftime. The Bears and Vikings home vs. road splits also favor the Vikings in this one.

I also spoke with Jason Simbal, VP of Risk Management at CG Technology, who had the following to say about today’s games.

"Biggest need: Browns and Panthers Sharp vs. Public: Redskins +7 vs. Eagles Jags +7 vs. Texans"