Fantasy Playoffs: Old Quarterbacks Can Be our Friend
By Jason Lisk
If you’ve made it this far, you probably have a pretty good roster at most positions, and will have to make a few calls at the flex position or replace some injured guys that carried you most of the way. I’ll take a quick look at some of the questions that will be key to winning this week.
WHAT QUARTERBACKS DO YOU GO TO IF YOU DON’T HAVE ONE OF THE ELITE OPTIONS (OR WILL BE MISSING RODGERS)?
Peyton Manning has a great matchup against Jacksonville. Brady, Vick, and Brees don’t have great matchups (though the Ravens looked vulnerable on Monday) but are elite options. Among others, Matt Ryan is probably the top option. Atlanta is still playing for something, and the Seattle pass defense is really struggling lately, getting lit up by Matt Cassel and Alex Smith in the last month. After that, I think that some wily veterans with great matchups become startable, as Kerry Collins versus Houston and Jon Kitna against Washington are in positive situations. Let’s put it this way: QB’s playing against Houston have averaged more points than every individual QB’s average, except for Peyton Manning and Michael Vick. You are getting a top 10 caliber QB against Houston so long as the QB is competent. Collins has seen better days, but not many better matchups. Jason Campbell is also a viable starting option in a pinch against Denver at home.
If I didn’t have one of the elite quarterbacks or was replacing Rodgers, I would start either of those ahead of others with more difficult matchups who are ranked higher on the season, including Joe Flacco, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Carson Palmer, Jay Cutler and David Garrard.
DO YOU SIT ADRIAN PETERSON?
The answer to this depends on who else you have on the roster. Peterson has the knee and ankle injuries (but is expected to play), has a below average matchup outside in the cold against the Bears on Monday night, and will have a third string quarterback under center, so expect the Chicago defense to load up against Peterson. With all of those factors against him, I would definitely start any of the following ahead of him this week: McFadden, Jones-Drew, Foster, Hillis, Turner, Chris Johnson, Charles, Steven Jackson, McCoy, Bradshaw, and Moreno. After that, you have some guys with less than stellar matchups themselves (Forte, Mendenhall), or backs in timeshares with great matchups but nowhere near Peterson’s level typically (Hightower, Stewart and Goodson, Felix Jones), so I think I would role with AP with the exception of those guys I listed above . . . and hope he breaks something.
WHAT FLEX MATCHUPS WOULD YOU GO WITH AT RUNNING BACK?
The Arizona-Carolina matchup is one that only a fantasy playoff participant could love, but it is the type of matchup that we’ve seen produce fantasy gold in the playoffs in the past. Both of these teams are in the bottom 3 in the league in fantasy points allowed to running backs on the year. Both are starting rookie quarterbacks, which should balance out any concerns of one team getting dominated in number of plays. Both should rely on their backs heavily. Johnathan Stewart and Mike Goodson are both startable this week (Stewart over Goodson), while Tim Hightower looks like the safest bet at running back for Arizona, as the team went away from Beanie Wells and Hightower had his career game last week. I think Hightower has the biggest upside (if he gets the higher percentage of team carries) to be this year’s Jerome Harrison, but at least one of them should turn in a top 15 performance this week. Picking which one is the hard part, which is why they are ranked outside the top 12 starts.
After that, I think Michael Bush is a flex start along with McFadden this week at home against Denver. Jahvid Best hasn’t done much lately, and is still listed on the injury report as probable, but as we saw again last week with Ryan Torain, there are yards to be had against the Bucs run defense. Ronnie Brown has struggled lately, and it would be a gutsy start, but he does get Buffalo at home. Rashad Jennings has come on strong as Jones-Drew’s backup, and has a fantastic matchup against the Colts.
DWAYNE BOWE, IS HE A GO?
Dwayne Bowe is comfortably in the top 6 in WR Fantasy Points for the season. He also has only 1 catch in the last two games, and has been inconsistent. He’s had fewer than 50 receiving yards in 6 of the 13 games. He has destroyed weak secondaries, going for over 100 yards and 2+ touchdowns against the likes of Houston and Seattle and Denver. I don’t think the Rams fall in that group. I’d bump him down to the 30-40 range if Cassel does not start, while Cassel starting would make him an option in the WR15-20 range, but not the slam dunk start because this isn’t the typical superb matchup that Bowe has exploited earlier this year.
WHAT MATCHUP STARTS WOULD YOU GO WITH AT WIDE RECEIVER AND TIGHT END?
I know that Rex Grossman doesn’t inspire confidence, but I think there will be plays to Santana Moss still available, even if I wouldn’t trust Sexy Rexy not to turn it over occasionally. The Cowboys have allowed more touchdown passes to wide receivers than any team in the league, and Moss is by far the most likely to serve that role here.
Kenny Britt worked back into the lineup last week with a pedestrian 4 catches for 39 yards, but was the clear starting option ahead of Randy Moss and should get ample opportunities against Houston’s soft zones this week. I have a rule that has served pretty well this year–start receivers against Houston. Britt is this week’s number one target.
Keep an eye on the Austin Collie injury news, as the top three wide receivers for Indianapolis should all be starts, so if Collie is in, start him, and give Blair White a look if he is ruled out again. Jacob Tamme should of course be in the lineup at tight end if you have him.
Mike Williams of Seattle has been out with an ankle injury after playing some good games at mid-season, and has a fantastic matchup as the Falcons have been generous to opponent wide receivers. If you are desperate, I think Williams is the guy I would look to.
With Steve Smith and Manningham injured, Kevin Boss should get opportunities, and the Eagles are 2nd worst in terms of tight end points allowed. Bo Scaife plays the Texans. Jermaine Gresham has a good matchup against Cleveland, and the New England duo of Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski should feature in a game plan against a tough Packers defense.
DEFENSES TO START?
Obviously, if you have the Steelers or Bears defense, you should start them. Christmas came early for me this week, as I picked up Dallas because I didn’t like my other matchups (New Orleans at Baltimore, San Fran at San Diego), and then the news came that Rex Grossman would start. If one has the means, I highly recommend Dallas as a source for some turnovers and sacks. The Raiders against Tebow and the Browns against the Carson Palmer experience.
[photo via Getty]