The Big Lead

Fantasy Football Week 2 Starter Rankings: Do You Sit Tom Brady Against Rex Ryan's Bills?

By Jason Lisk

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Tom Brady came back with a vengeance last week, throwing 4 touchdowns in the season opener against Pittsburgh and posting the most fantasy points at the QB position. So owners who took a chance on Brady dealing with the 4-game suspension got an unexpected boost. But do you consider benching him this week?

The answer to that, of course, depends on what else you have available. This week’s matchup with Buffalo looks like a tough one. The player who led the league in touchdown passes and came in as the presumptive top QB for fantasy, Andrew Luck, managed only a 14th place finish at the position, and most of that came in garbage time.

Brady also has a history with Rex Ryan, and that history suggests that there is plenty of risk in penciling Brady in as an automatic start regardless of other options.

Here’s a summary, in reverse chronological order, of Brady’s stats and fantasy point rank at QB when facing Ryan’s Jets teams in the regular season over the last six years.

He averaged a fantasy rank of 13.9 on the week he played the Jets. He has as many stinkers where he finished outside the top 20 as those fantasy-winning weeks where he was top 6, including 3 of the last 4 meetings.

I’ve got him at QB #10 this week. Tom Brady can always put up a big game, but there is downside risk because of the tough Bills defense coupled with the Rex Ryan factor. It’s doubtful you drafted Brady along with Rodgers, Luck, Brees, Roethlisberger, or Wilson. But if you have Palmer, Bradford, Tannehill, Eli Manning, Romo, or Rivers–all with much better opponent matchups–I think you have a very difficult decision. And if you don’t have any of those guys, it’s probably worth the risk of going with Brady and seeing if he can come up with a good performance at Buffalo.

[Related: Week 2 NFL Picks and Predictions Podcast, Plus Interview with Wall Street Journal’s Kevin Clark]

All rankings below, + = probable ++ = questionable to play [Note: Updated 9/20 with early game inactive and active info and new injury information]

QUARTERBACKS

  1. Aaron Rodgers vs. SEA
  2. Andrew Luck vs. NYJ
  3. Drew Brees vs. TB
  4. Matt Ryan at NYG
  5. Ben Roethlisberger vs. SF
  6. Russell Wilson at GB
  7. Carson Palmer at CHI
  8. Sam Bradford vs. DAL
  9. Ryan Tannehill at JAC
  10. Tom Brady at BUF
  11. Eli Manning vs. ATL
  12. Tony Romo at PHI++
  13. Philip Rivers at CIN
  14. Cam Newton vs. HOU
  15. Peyton Manning at KC+
  16. Matthew Stafford at MIN+
  17. Teddy Bridgewater vs. DET
  18. Colin Kaepernick at PIT
  19. Jay Cutler vs. ARI
  20. Andy Dalton vs. SD
  21. Nick Foles at WAS
  22. Marcus Mariota at CLE
  23. Tyrod Taylor vs. NE
  24. Jameis Winston at NO
  25. Joe Flacco at OAK
  26. Alex Smith vs DEN
  27. Ryan Fitzpatrick at IND
  28. Derek Carr vs. BAL+
  29. Johnny Manziel vs. TEN++
  30. Kirk Cousins vs. STL
  31. Blake Bortles vs. MIA
  32. Ryan Mallett at CAR

 

RUNNING BACKS

  1. Matt Forte vs. ARI
  2. Marshawn Lynch at GB
  3. Eddie Lacy vs. SEA
  4. DeMarco Murray vs. DAL
  5. Adrian Peterson vs. DET
  6. Jamaal Charles vs. DEN
  7. Jeremy Hill vs. SD
  8. LeSean McCoy vs. NE
  9. Carlos Hyde at SF
  10. Mark Ingram vs. TB
  11. Lamar Miller at JAC
  12. Latavius Murray vs. BAL
  13. DeAngelo Williams vs. SF
  14. Joseph Randle at PHI
  15. Bishop Sankey at CLE
  16. Justin Forsett at OAK++
  17. C.J. Anderson at KC++ (Schefter says he will play with the injury)
  18. Alfred Morris vs. STL
  19. Ameer Abdullah at MIN
  20. Rashad Jennings vs. ATL
  21. Doug Martin at NO
  22. Chris Ivory at IND++ [Ivory downgraded after initial #10 ranking based on being now questionable for Monday Night, proceed with caution]
  23. Jonathan Stewart vs. HOU++ [Stewart is active]
  24. Melvin Gordon at CIN
  25. T.J. Yeldon vs. MIA+
  26. Frank Gore vs. NYJ
  27. Tevin Coleman at NYG
  28. Chris Johnson at CHI
  29. LeGarrette Blount at BUF
  30. Bilal Powell at IND [upgraded with Chris Ivory questionable]
  31. Giovani Bernard vs. SD
  32. C.J. Spiller vs. TB++ [Spiller is active]
  33. Danny Woodhead at CIN
  34. Tre Mason at WAS+
  35. Joique Bell at MIN
  36. David Johnson at CHI
  37. Javorius Allen at OAK (watch status of Forsett)
  38. Ronnie Hillman at KC
  39. Alfred Blue at CAR
  40. Darren Sproles vs. DAL
  41. Isaiah Crowell vs. TEN
  42. Devonta Freeman at NYG
  43. Shane Vereen vs. ATL
  44. Benny Cunningham at WAS
  45. Ryan Mathews vs. DAL
  46. Dion Lewis at BUF
  47. Duke Johnson at TEN
  48. Darren McFadden at PHI
  49. Lance Dunbar at PHI
  50. Karlos Williams vs. NE
  51. Khiry Robinson vs. TB
  52. Johnathan Grimes at CAR

 

WIDE RECEIVERS

  1. Antonio Brown vs. SF
  2. Julio Jones at NYG++ [Jones is active, proceed]
  3. Odell Beckham vs. ATL
  4. Calvin Johnson at MIN
  5. Randall Cobb vs. SEA++
  6. DeAndre Hopkins at CAR
  7. A.J. Green vs. SD
  8. Keenan Allen at CIN
  9. Demaryius Thomas at KC+
  10. Jordan Matthews vs. DAL
  11. Alshon Jeffery vs. ARI [Jeffery has been inactivated for today’s game]
  12. Brandin Cooks vs. TB
  13. Julian Edelman at BUF
  14. Emmanuel Sanders at KC
  15. Brandon Marshall at IND
  16. Jarvis Landry at JAC
  17. Mike Evans at NO++ [Evans is active]
  18. Terrance Williams at PHI
  19. Roddy White at NYG
  20. Larry Fitzgerald at CHI
  21. Amari Cooper vs. BAL
  22. Steve Smith at OAK
  23. Andre Johnson vs. NYJ
  24. Jeremy Maclin vs. DEN+
  25. Davante Adams vs. SEA
  26. Golden Tate at MIN++ [Tate is active]
  27. John Brown at CHI
  28. Kendall Wright at CLE
  29. Steve Johnson at CIN
  30. Donte Moncrief vs. NYJ
  31. Pierre Garcon vs. STL
  32. Vincent Jackson at NO
  33. Sammy Watkins vs. NE
  34. Allen Robinson vs. MIA+
  35. James Jones vs. SEA
  36. Mike Wallace vs. DET
  37. Eric Decker at IND
  38. Anquan Boldin at PIT
  39. Markus Wheaton vs. SF
  40. Torrey Smith at PIT
  41. Brandon Coleman vs. TB
  42. Tavon Austin at WAS
  43. Charles Johnson vs. DET
  44. Cole Beasley at PHI
  45. Michael Crabtree vs. BAL
  46. Marques Colston vs. TB
  47. Jermaine Kearse at GB
  48. Michael Floyd at CHI+
  49. Rueben Randle vs. ATL
  50. Doug Baldwin at GB
  51. Nelson Agholor vs. DAL
  52. Percy Harvin vs. NE++

TIGHT ENDS

  1. Rob Gronkowski at BUF
  2. Travis Kelce vs. DEN+
  3. Jimmy Graham at GB
  4. Jason Witten at PHI
  5. Tyler Eifert vs. SD
  6. Greg Olsen vs. HOU
  7. Martellus Bennett vs. ARI
  8. Jordan Cameron at JAC
  9. Austin Sefarian-Jenkins at NO
  10. Heath Miller vs. SF
  11. Ladarius Green at CIN+
  12. Jordan Reed vs. STL
  13. Zach Ertz vs. DAL
  14. Kyle Rudolph vs. DET
  15. Dwayne Allen vs. NYJ
  16. Delanie Walker at CLE++
  17. Jared Cook at WAS
  18. Eric Ebron at MIN
  19. Vernon Davis at PIT
  20. Charles Clay vs. NE
  21. Larry Donnell vs. ATL
  22. Owen Daniels at KC
  23. Richard Rodgers vs. SEA
  24. Crockett Gilmore at OAK
  25. Coby Fleener vs. NYJ

KICKERS

  1. Cody Parkey vs. DAL
  2. Adam Vinatieri vs. NYJ
  3. Zach Hocker vs. TB
  4. Stephen Gostkowski at BUF
  5. Mason Crosby vs. SEA
  6. Matt Bryant at NYG
  7. Josh Scobee vs. SF
  8. Justin Tucker at OAK
  9. Josh Brown vs. ATL
  10. Mike Nugent vs. SD
  11. Dan Bailey at PHI
  12. Chandler Catanzaro at CHI
  13. Steven Hauschka at GB
  14. Cairo Santos vs. DEN
  15. Brandon McManus at KC
  16. Blair Walsh vs. DET

DEFENSES/SPECIAL TEAMS

  1. DOLPHINS at JAC
  2. RAMS at WAS
  3. RAVENS at OAK
  4. PANTHERS vs. HOU
  5. CHIEFS vs DEN
  6. BRONCOS at KC
  7. SAINTS vs TB
  8. BILLS vs. NE
  9. VIKINGS vs. DET
  10. CARDINALS at CHI
  11. SEAHAWKS at GB
  12. LIONS at MIN
  13. BENGALS vs. SD
  14. TITANS at CLE
  15. EAGLES vs. DAL
  16. GIANTS vs. ATL