Fantasy Football: Don't Be Afraid to Use Running Back Committees

RB 1-4: +97.7 points over baseline (14 of 16 higher than RB #36)

RB 5-8: +85.4 points over baseline (16 of 16 higher than RB #36)

RB 9-12: +41.3 points over baseline (10 of 16 higher than RB #36)

RB 13-16: +52.3 points over baseline (12 of 16 higher than RB #36)

RB 17-20: +58.6 points over baseline (11 of 16 higher than RB #36)

So, at least over the last four years, those guys that are going toward the end of round 1 and early round 2 aren’t performing any better than guys that are going a few rounds later. The guys who grabbed the safer RB2’s have fared worse than those who waited a little longer. Something else has happened over the last four years. The league has gone to more running back committees where the lead runner may only get about 60% of the touches, and where a second back becomes viable in fantasy. I think this has in no small way played a role in diminishing the dropoff in performance of the early RB2’s. They feel safe, and they generally get drafted because they are guys who will get touches and are not in a committee.

One strategy that has become more prominent is taking receivers or quarterbacks early when drafting near the end of the first round. I’ve actually done this for a while, but I’ve noticed it has increased across the board. The viability of that strategy depends on a lot of things: the scoring system (PPR makes it more attractive), the number of starting spots for WR’s vs. RB’s, and of course, who specifically is available.

I’m going to suggest a related strategy to drafting wide receivers early. Don’t be afraid to draft both members  of an actual committee, to decrease your risk and take advantage of the fact that the market is reduced on those players because of the uncertainty of the how the touches will break out. In other words, rather than just waiting on running backs and randomly drafting one player from a team, and another back from a different team a round later, go for the pairs if possible. This strategy becomes more useful if you can start 3 WR’s, and play in PPR, so adjust your individual situation accordingly.

This move can be used in different ways. You can start the both backs in a given platoon with good matchups, and not worry about who specifically scores a touchdown or gets the most carries that week. If the matchup is good or the platoon is good enough, you will still get quality points out of your two starters. Another feature is insurance against injury. If one goes out, that doesn’t hurt you and may be a positive. You just start the other and expect an uptick that week. Finally, you get some upside, and plenty of top backs over the last four years have emerged from these perceived platoon situations, and had depressed draft value as a result.

In past three years, if you adopted this approach, you could have hit the following booms by drafting committees that were both available after the first four rounds in most leagues:

2008: A Johnathan Stewart (6th round) + DeAngelo Williams (8th round) combo would have produced the #1 running back, or alternatively, Chris Johnson (8th round) + Lendale White (6th round) would have given a top 10 back. Both pairs also had viable starters from the other running back position. You could have also paired one of those groups with an even later combo of  Ahman Green/Steve Slaton (both available after round 10), which would have given a surprise top 10 from Slaton. Pair that with some good WR’s and an elite QB, and you would have rolled.

2009: Addai/Brown (Ind), Jones/Greene (NYJ), and Parker/Mendenhall (Pit) would have been the most likely targets, and each would have produced viable starters and backs that finished among the top 15 by season’s end, even if we didn’t know that Addai and Jones would hold off the youngsters, while Mendenhall would become a boom play.

2010: The Ahmad Bradshaw/Brandon Jacobs combo, with a 6th and 8th round price, would have been fantasy gold. The other similar pair, Felix Jones/Marion Barber less so for the same price. You could have paired them with either Darren McFadden/Michael Bush (both available after round 7) or Jerome Harrison/Peyton Hillis, and gotten a surprise top 10 back in either case.

I highlighted the likely targets using this strategy over the last 3 years, but it becomes an even more viable strategy in 2011 because there are so many options and you can implement it even if your first choice is selected right before you pick. I count 11 team situations where the top back has an average draft position outside the top 4 rounds. They are (with average draft position in parentheses):

• Green Bay: Ryan Grant (49) and James Starks (96)
• New Orleans: Mark Ingram (50) and either Pierre Thomas (87) or Darren Sproles (133)
• Dallas: Felix Jones (51) and DeMarco Murray (149)
• Cincinnati: Cedric Benson (60) and Bernard Scott (outside 150)
• Miami: Daniel Thomas (63) and Reggie Bush (97)
• New England: Benjarvus Green-Ellis (66) and Danny Woodhead (123) or Stevan Ridley (outside 150)
• Buffalo: Fred Jackson (68) and C.J. Spiller (95)
• Indianapolis: Joseph Addai (75) and Donald Brown (146)
• Arizona: Beanie Wells (73) and Ryan Williams (98)
• Seattle: Marshawn Lynch (69) and either Leon Washington or Justin Forsett (both outside 150)
• Washington: Ryan Torain (90) and Tim Hightower (113)

Not only that, but two other combos (Carolina & San Diego) currently have the lead back going in the 4th round, so if one of those above doesn’t make it, it may be as a result of DeAngelo or Mathews falling.

So here’s the general strategy, if you have a pick at the end of round 1:

1) draft 2 WR’s and a QB in rounds 1-3 and load up on those positions;

2) take your first lead back of a platoon with your pick in round 4;

3) from rounds 5-7, pick up another back or two, either the second of a pairing, another lead back in a platoon, or both, along with either your starting TE or your third starting WR;

4) round out your platoons in rounds 8 and beyond, keeping an eye on demand and average draft position, and taking them a round or two early if necessary.

As for the pairings, my targets would be Green Bay or New Orleans as my lead pairing. Maybe Ryan Grant comes back from injury, maybe he doesn’t. If he doesn’t, then you’ve got Starks. I think GB’s run numbers will go up this year, and it’s an elite passing offense, which will give running back touchdown opportunities. At worst, I think this is a viable pair to start along with great WR’s and an elite QB, and at best, I think you get a boom from one of them. With New Orleans, Ingram gives great upside, and can either be paired with Thomas (his handcuff) or Sproles, who could be a viable start on bye week situations or with good matchups as the receiver of the group. (I would add either San Diego or Carolina to that group if they were there when you pick in the 4th as well).

As for the second pairing, you want someone available in rounds 5 or 6. I would personally target either Buffalo’s pair or Miami’s pair. If your league allows you to carry 5 or more running backs, then you don’t have to have everyone as part of a pair. Here is a sample roster using this strategy and current average draft positions, picking out of the 9th slot in a 12 team league:

QB: Drew Brees or Peyton Manning (3rd round)

RB: Mark Ingram (4th round)/Darren Sproles (10th round) or Ryan Grant (4th round)/James Starks (8th round)

RB: Daniel Thomas (5th round)/Reggie Bush (8th round) OR Fred Jackson (5th round)/C.J. Spiller (8th round)

WR: Andre Johnson or Calvin Johnson (1st round)

WR: Larry Fitzgerald or Roddy White (2nd round)

WR: Mario Manningham or Kenny Britt (6th round)

TE: Jimmy Graham or Owen Daniels (7th round)

I think that would be a pretty strong team, you wouldn’t have your season riding on one running back’s ACL, and it provides plenty of upside at running back that could produce one of those magical seasons if any of those backs turn into the next DeAngelo Williams from 2008, Rashard Mendenhall of 2009, or Darren McFadden or Peyton Hillis from last year.

[photo via Getty]