College Football Week 11 Picks Against the Spread

Arkansas v Alabama
Arkansas v Alabama / Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Season Records: Koster 53-43; Giuffra 49-38; McKeone 47-49; Phillips 46-52

Penn State (-6.5) at Minnesota

McKeone: Minnesota has shown some surprising offensive prowess this year, but Penn State is far better than anyone they've played to date. It'll be a slugfest. Penn State 17, Minnesota 13

Koster: P.J. Fleck has his boat rowing at unprecedented speed, though it's yet to meet any choppy waters. Penn State is one of the most underrated teams in the country and has won a few significant road games already. As fun as it would be for the Gophers' dream to continue, I have an unsettling feeling that the moment is going to be too big for them, and the Nittany Lions' elite defensive playmakers will cause havoc. Penn State 24, Minnesota 14

Giuffra: Minnesota has had a nice run this year, but don't forget, it barely beat Georgia Southern at home. It's gotten better, but Penn State is battle-tested, and its defense will do enough to cover. Penn State 21, Minnesota 14

Phillips: Minnesota has had a great season so far, but the undefeated streak ends this week. Penn State 31, Minnesota 21

Iowa (+8.5) at Wisconsin

McKeone: With a few weeks to stew over a humiliating loss to Ohio State, I think Wisconsin comes out swinging at home. Wisconsin 35, Iowa 17

Koster: Wisconsin has crashed back to earth but still has the best offensive line and perhaps running back in the nation lining up. This should be a real slugfest but the Badgers' opportunistic defense will find the end zone. Wisconsin 27, Iowa 14

Giuffra: Wisconsin has come crashing down to earth after being in the CFP convo for about 10 seconds. Their running game simply isn't hitting the big play like it was early in the year. Iowa's defense is predicated on stopping the run. Should be a close one. Wisconsin 24, Iowa 17

Phillips: Wisconsin is bouncing back this week. It's been a rough stretch after back-to-back losses to Illinois and Ohio State, but the Badgers will get back on track. Wisconsin 34, Iowa 20

Missouri (+14.5) at Georgia

McKeone: Kelly Bryant will make this far closer than the line suggests, but Georgia won't be dropping another one at home after a massive win over Florida last week. Georgia 38, Missouri 31

Koster: The Bulldogs are focused and believe themselves to be back in the playoff hunt. A focused and strong effort against Florida could be a major building block. Trusting Missouri's front seven to stop elite running backs is an iffy proposition. Georgia 31, Missouri 13

Giuffra: Georgia's defense is carrying a lackluster offense the last three weeks. Against a suspect Missouri defense, I think the Bulldogs come back alive, hyping themselves up as CFP contenders again. They aren't, but it's good fodder. Georgia 33, Missouri 17

Phillips: Georgia is getting by thanks to a stellar defense that is bolstering a wildly disappointing offense. This week, Missouri will make this matchup much more difficult than it should be. Georgia 24, Missouri 17

LSU (+6.5) at Alabama

McKeone: This is going to be quite a game. Lots to consider here. I'm going to go bold and say that this is Joe Burrow's Heisman moment and we get a victorious Coach O post-game speech for the ages. LSU 28, Alabama 27

Koster: No sane human being should wager on this game without knowing the full scope of Tua Tagovailoa's availability. As a pessimist, I'll take the approach that the stunning southpaw is still dealing with a significant injury and won't be near 100 percent. The Crimson Tide defense has shown a propensity to give up big chunks and big points and has yet to tackle a challenge like Joe Burrow. With deep reservation I'll take the visitors to cover, but not win. Alabama 25, LSU 21

Giuffra: LSU changed offenses this offseason specifically for this game. They've been running on all cylinders so far this year, but Nick Saban simply has LSU's number. I've watched both of these teams play a half dozen times this year and my gut tells me LSU is the better team, but my mind tells me Alabama at home is too much for Joe Burrow and the pressure the Heisman frontrunner will face. Plus, coming off a bye, Alabama is always well prepared. Alabama 32, LSU 21

Phillips: This should be the game of the year but, like many Alabama/LSU matchups it could be a defensive struggle that comes down to field goals. I think Bama will win, but I struggle to see it cover. Alabama 28, LSU 24

Baylor (-1) at TCU

McKeone: I don't really know how to feel about Baylor this year, so I'm going to say their demise comes this week in a visit to Fort Worth. TCU 24, Baylor 20

Koster: A lot is riding on the health of freshman Horned Frogs quarterback Max Duggan. If he plays, the home team should emerge victorious. If he doesn't, all bets are off. Let's get nuts though and guess he does, using a dual-threat attack to ruin perfection. TCU 33, Baylor 30

Giuffra: Baylor has been up-and-down all season and is coming off a down performance. Not really sure why people think TCU can stick with Baylor, but I'll lay the points here. Baylor 31, TCU 27

Phillips: Matt Rhule has done outstanding work at Baylor and could be in line for Coach-of-the-Year honors. Unfortunately the Bears' perfect record ends this week. As Koster said, if Duggan is healthy, TCU will win. I think he's playing. TCU 31, Baylor 30

Kansas State (+5.5) at Texas

McKeone: I doubted K-State last week, and it will not be said I don't learn from my mistakes. Kansas State 31, Texas 21

Koster: The Wildcats are riding high and rolling. But Sam Ehlinger & Co. have a lot of face to save. Something tells me that the Longhorns are going to put together 60 minutes of great football at home. Texas 41, Kansas State 24

Giuffra: Texas seems to have quit on this season since its loss to Oklahoma. Kansas State, on the other side, seems to be rejuvenated after a win against Oklahoma. Still, sometimes talent matters, and at home Texas will show its talent. Texas 32, Kansas State 24

Phillips: A fascinating matchup that truly could go either way. I'm rolling with the home team. Texas 35, Kansas State 28

Iowa State (+13) at Oklahoma

McKeone: Oklahoma can't be happy after their brutal loss before their off week, and will be taking out their anger on the poor Cyclones. Oklahoma 45, Iowa State 21

Koster: If the Sooners are harboring any type of national title hopes, they know racking up style points will be important. Jalen Hurts will come out angry and motivated and the Cyclones aren't nearly as good a team away from Ames. Oklahoma 49, Iowa State 23

Giuffra: Oklahoma is on a fruitless voyage to prove it's the best one-loss team in the nation. That means blowing out lesser opponents. Plus, there's Jalen Hurt's fruitless Heisman campaign to consider too. Garbage time scores here we come. Oklahoma 51, Iowa State 27

Phillips: Oklahoma's goal every week is to go out and prove it belongs in the national title conversation after a season-altering loss to Kansas State. Expect the Sooners to pour it on and run up scores on a weekly basis. Oklahoma 56, Iowa State 21

Wake Forest (-3) at Virginia Tech

McKeone: Tech almost stole one from ND last week, and they'll pull it off at home this week. Virginia Tech 44, Wake Forest 38

Koster: Wake Forest quarterback Jamie Newman is gifted with an exceptional group of wideouts and they're hitting their stride. The Hokies showed a lot of life in South Bend but the Notre Dame loss is the type that can linger. Wake Forest 38, Virginia Tech 24

Phillips: Virginia Tech almost upset Notre Dame in South Bend. Expect a big letdown this week after the defense collapsed late against the Irish. The emotional low of that loss could be crushing. Wake Forest will take this and continue marching toward a huge matchup with Clemson next week. Wake Forest 35, Virginia Tech 17

Giuffra: Virginia Tech went all in against Notre Dame and came up short. Wake Forest, meanwhile, earned an easy win last week. I don't love road favorites, but I like Wake's offense more than Tech's. Wake Forest 32, Virginia Tech 28

Notre Dame (-6.5) at Duke

McKeone: The Fighting Irish haven't exactly looked invincible over the last two weeks, but this feels like a game where they steady things out. Duke will cover at home, though. Notre Dame 28, Duke 24

Koster: Let me know when these two play in basketball. Notre Dame 29, Duke 19

Phillips: Notre Dame is struggling but still winning. The Irish should be able to pull out a road win at Duke. It will just be harder than they'd like it to be. Notre Dame 34, Duke 27

Giuffra: Duke is coming off a tough loss to its rival, UNC following a beatdown against Virginia. Both of those games were on the road. Duke has only lost once at home and it was by three against Pittsburgh. Seems like they're due for a blowout here. Notre Dame 33, Duke 21

Appalachian State (+4) at South Carolina

McKeone: App State's loss last week eliminates any hope of a big bowl appearance, and everyone knows it. South Carolina will defend their home turf without much issue. South Carolina 30, Appalachian State 17

Koster: Appalachian State stubbed its toe last week and is left to lick its wounds. Gone is the opportunity to surprise an SEC program, especially one that has proven it's up to the big moments this year. Gamecocks stay strong. South Carolina 19, Appalachian State 10

Phillips: App State is biting off more that it can chew this week. South Carolina 24, Appalachian State 17

Giuffra: South Carolina would have loved to end App State's perfect season, but Georgia Southern did that for it. Still, I think the Gamecocks' defense will be too much for App State and they'll be able to score enough to cover. South Carolina 24, Appalachian State 17