The Big Lead

College Basketball: Finding Teams Where RPI, Pomeroy, and Sagarin Disagree

By Jason Lisk

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The differences generally lie in the types of things that might be predictive of future performance. RPI will value good wins, regardless of margin, and punish for schedule strength. While the other two also involve schedule adjustments, they also look at how teams play in achieving those results. Sagarin with point margins, and Pomeroy with other efficiency measures as well, such as “effective field goal percentage” on offense and defense.

I looked at all teams that were ranked in the top 50 in at least one of the three ranking systems-65 teams total. I then compared the relative rankings in the RPI to the average of the Pomeroy and Sagarin rankings. The higher the team is ranked, the more stark the difference is. As an example, if RPI has Wichita State at 43 and the other two have them in the low 50’s, that’s not as big a difference as BYU being #1 in the RPI while ranked as a 3-seed by the other two. I tried to account for that by requiring a greater spread as the rankings increased. This way, we get a good mix of both tournament favorites and bubble teams. Without further ado, here are the ten teams that are the RPI All-Stars: teams that rank much higher in the RPI than in the other two measures:

  • Notre Dame (RPI-8, POM-26, SAG-26)
  • Tennessee (RPI-19, POM-50, SAG-50)
  • Xavier (RPI-25, POM-64, SAG-71)
  • UCONN (RPI-4, POM-13, SAG-22)
  • Old Dominion (RPI-29, POM-69, SAG-69)
  • Memphis (RPI-35, POM-84, SAG-84)
  • St. John’s (RPI-28, POM-63, SAG-57)
  • Georgetown (RPI-7, POM-22, SAG-13)
  • Boston College (RPI-30, POM-60, SAG-58)
  • San Diego State (RPI-3, POM-12, SAG-12)

Conversely, here are the Pomeroy/Sagarin All-Stars, teams ranked much higher in those measures (and teams that should really get their PR people to espouse the virtues of these rankings if they are “on the bubble”):

  • Maryland (RPI-75, POM-14, SAG-19)
  • Washington (RPI-22, POM-7, SAG-4)
  • Alabama (RPI-132, POM-48, SAG-56)
  • Wisconsin (RPI-24, POM-8, SAG-10)
  • Duquesne (RPI-91, POM-36, SAG-34)
  • Belmont (RPI-70, POM-32, SAG-29)
  • Marquette (RPI-66, POM-28, SAG-28)
  • Nebraska (RPI-103, POM-41, SAG-47)
  • Baylor (RPI-98, POM-47, SAG-44)
  • Virginia Tech (RPI-74, POM-31, SAG-36)

[photo via Getty]