Champions League Final: Chelsea vs. Bayern Munich.

Moscow: Chelsea lost the 2008 Final to Manchester United on penalties. More accurately, one specific penalty, John Terry’s. The Chelsea captain took the spot with the chance to win. He slipped and the shot hit the bar. Roman Abramovich’s billion-dollar dream went unfulfilled. Terry, suspended after a dumb red card, cannot redeem himself, but the rest of his old guard cadre can do it for him. This will be the last chance for the Terry/Lampard/Drogba triumvirate.

Madrid: Bayern Munich lost the 2010 Final to Inter Milan. The Germans held most of the possession. Inter Milan managed just three shots on target, though two of them, well placed for Diego Milito, went into the net. Bayern have an abundance of young talent, but veterans Lahm, Schweinsteiger, Ribery and Robben are all approaching 30. These opportunities, they know, are rare.

Chelsea Retrospective: The Blues wanted a revolution. They paid handsomely to pry talented manager Andre Villas-Boas from Porto. When results went sour, however, they retreated to their Mourinho-inspired conservatism. The swap for caretaker Roberto Di Matteo did not recover their place in the league. They finished sixth (their first time out of the Top 3 since Abramovich bought the club). Chelsea did find their defensive form in club competitions, though. They beat Liverpool in the FA Cup Final and upset Barcelona for a shot to make it a double. Doing so is doubly important, as it’s the only way Chelsea get back into the competition next season.

Bayern Retrospective: Bayern were good, just not quite as good as Borussia Dortmund. Bayern lost all three meetings. The two 1-0 defeats in the league caused a 12-point swing that cost Bayern the title. Dortmund also crushed them 5-2 in last week’s German Cup Final. They weren’t a dynamo domestically, though neither was the 1970s team that won three-straight European Cups.

Tactics: This should resemble Chelsea’s matchup with Barcelona. Bayern are a not quite as good Barcelona. They play a 4-2-3-1, hold possession and will like to break Chelsea down. The Blues will sit back in a condensed 4-5-1 and try to hit Drogba or one of the two wide midfielders in space on the counterattack. On paper, this should frustrate Ribery and Robben, both of whom prefer to cut inside on their better foot and shoot.

Bayern could present a tougher challenge than Barcelona did. Against the Catalans, Chelsea resolved to stop Messi. They jammed players into the Vortex left behind by his false nine position. Barcelona, acutely missing Pedro and David Villa on the wings, struggled and chance to win were left unconverted.

Neither Bayern winger is Lionel Messi, but there are two of them on opposite sides of the field. Bayern can force Chelsea to defend the entire pitch instead of one focal point. They have the “Plan B” in prolific, well-coiffed striker Mario Gomez who has scored 12 goals in the Champions League this season, more than any player but Messi. Pivotal for them will be the left defensive side and breaking up possible interplay between Lahm, Robben and Thomas Muller.

Inter Milan beat Bayern with a similar tactic in the 2010 Final, though this is a better Bayern team and Bayern had chances to win that match they did not take.

Suspensions: Both teams will be shorthanded defensively (seven total players are suspended). This should satiate the American audience thirsty for scoring. Why enjoy a delicate morsel of roasted chicken oyster when you can inhale a bucket full of chicken wings?

Bayern are missing Holger Badstuber (CB), David Alaba (LB) and Luis Gustavo (DM). The central losses could be critical. It forces Bayern to play Tymoshchuck, a natural midfielder, in central defense. It also pairs Schweinsteiger and Kroos in the holding role. Both are gifted players, though both are attacking players who can defend rather than natural stoppers. Both have experience as deep lying playmakers, though not paired with each other.

Chelsea are without John Terry (CB), Branislav Ivanovic (RB), Ramires (M) and Raul Meireles (M). The good news is both Gary Cahill and David Luiz are fit to start after rushing back from injuries. The bad news is neither may be fit to finish or to play effectively. Ramires and Meireles are also huge defensive losses. Both are very active defensively, providing the pressure essential for Di Matteo’s formation. Both are also adept counterattackers.

Prediction: Bayern Munich is better. They are playing at home. Drogba may score, but he’s not going to dominate. Bayern Munich 2-1 Chelsea.

[Photos via Getty]