Can Top-10 Finishes in Golf Majors Give Us an Idea on Whether or Not Tiger Can Catch Jack?

As Woods has undergone knee surgeries and off-the-course issues over the last three years, while not adding to his major total of 14 since the U.S. Open in 2008, the sentiment about his chances to surpass Nicklaus’ mark has turned. Tiger Woods spoiled us. His six Top 10 finishes in the Majors over the last three years would still put him even with Arnold Palmer, one behind Tom Watson, and one ahead of Gary Player at ages 33 to 35. The comparisons, though, are to Jack, and Nicklaus was at his brilliant best at this same age, finishing Top 10 in all 12 Majors over the same stretch, and Top 4 in all but two of them.

Jack and Tiger were both born around the same time of year (January/late December), and Jack got his 14th Major at the PGA Championship at age 35, the same age Tiger will be next month if he makes it back to play. The comparisons between the two are natural and inevitable, but I thought I would look a little deeper, not only at titles, but other finishes, and not just at Jack Nicklaus, but also other top golfers.

Picture a golf career like a mountain. What does a mountain look like? You probably have a different image, depending on your personal experience. Is it Pike’s Peak, or Mount Everest? The Smoky Mountains or the Alps? They come in a variety of slopes and heights and shapes. Tiger and Jack are the highest peak elevations, but we can’t assume that their slopes will be similar.

I first looked at all golfers born since 1929 (Arnold Palmer and Peter Thomson were born that year) who won 2 or more majors, and are at least 45 years old now, or not still active threats to finish Top 10. I then looked at their ages for each Major victory, and Top Ten finish in a Major.

Wins in Majors are rare events, even for the best. We are debating whether someone will win 18 times over the course of 30 years. Looking at Top 10 finishes gives us a little more info and shape to careers. For example, if you just went by wins, Ben Crenshaw might appear to be a late peaker, while Lee Trevino looks like someone who peaked earlier. In reality, Crenshaw came up just short early on, but had over half (14) of his Top 10’s before age 29. His Masters win at age 43 was an anomaly, and he had far more chances early. Conversely, Trevino won 4 majors by 32, and even though the titles slowed down, he had almost half of his Top 10 finishes in majors after his 36th birthday.

My parameters originally provided 31 golfers, but I kicked off the bottom 5 (Larry Nelson, Andy North, Lee Janzen, Sandy Lyle and John Daly), none of whom had more than 5 Top 10’s before their 36th birthday, and thus did not a very high peak by the same age as Tiger now. The remainder, on average, had 73% of their Top Ten finishes before they turned 36.

Much like there is no typical mountain, there was quite a variety in that group. Seve was done. Johnny Miller was almost done. At the other extreme, Nick Price, Vijay Singh, and Billy Casper would all peak late, and have more Top 10’s after turning 36. Several others enjoyed ups and downs after 35 that resulted in periods of dominance.

Jack Nicklaus actually aged gracefully in comparison to other top golfers, taking into account the lofty standards he had already set. Nicklaus had 45 Top 10 finishes in majors before his 36th birthday (10 more than Woods); he would have another 36 by age 50. Jack only won 4 of those 36 major tournaments in which he contended after his 36th birthday, which is actually in line with the win rate for the other top golfers in our group after 36, but below his (and Tiger’s) own win rate up until that point.

To assume that Tiger surpasses Jack, we would have to assume that the shape of his career mountain is similar. Unfortunately, we just don’t know. The knee problems may hint that it is not, but we ultimately don’t know. If Tiger’s aging is more like the average for the group, then we can expect him to have only 13 more Top 10’s after this year. He would then have to win a much higher percentage of major tournaments in which he contended. Tiger will need to either continue to contend at a high rate (something that does tend to decrease with age) or continue to win at a high rate in tournaments in which he contends (another thing that tends to decline slightly with age). I do think he is a slight underdog to get to 18, but it’s pretty close.

We probably won’t know the answer, though, for another 15 years. If Woods manages to win just 2 more before his 40th birthday, and he is in good health by then, I wouldn’t rule anything out. Jack, after all, went through a stretch where he had near misses and didn’t win #15 until the British Open when he was 38 years old. As Tom Watson showed us just two years ago in almost winning the Open, the all-time greats can put it together for short stretches even when we think they are done. I’m not ruling out Woods until he hangs up the cleats.

[photo via Getty]