Bubble Watch: Recent Comparables Show Oregon State Safe, St. Joseph's is Not
By Jason Lisk
The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee is not completely predictable. Things change slightly from year-to-year, and there are always a handful of decisions that do not fit a more general pattern. That said, prior precedent does a pretty good job of predicting teams, so that really we are discussing 2-3 situations on Selection Sunday and everyone should get at least 65 of 68 teams correct.
To assess this year heading into the major conference tourneys, I went through the last five years and put together comparable teams based on three separate categories: (1) RPI rank; (2) Pomeroy rank (which could also substitute for “eye test” or types of teams as far as close wins, close losses, etc); and (3) wins and losses against the RPI Top 25, Teams 26-50, Teams 51-100, and overall against Top 100.
Combining all of these things together gives us a decent view of similar teams. As an example, USC has a similar RPI rating to Wichita State and Tulsa. However, looking at the records against various level of teams differentiates those teams so that their comparables look much different. And we see those differences play out in likelihood of selection. I reviewed the 20 most similar teams based on the above factors to assess the chances of getting selected, as well as average seed if selected.
I list here every team that did not get a 100% chance of selection based on current resumé. There were 29 teams where all of their comparables were selected as at-larges or seeded better than a 12-seed if they were auto bids. Before going, a quick note on one of them: Joe Lunardi had Oregon State as among the First Four Out last night. Oregon State, with an RPI of 30, a 5-7 record against the top 50, and 11 wins against the top 100, had a score of 100% for comparable team selection.
Those 29 teams include 7 projected auto bids. That leaves somewhere between 12 and 14 remaining at-larges. I say remaining because San Diego State and Saint Mary’s are both among the potential at-large candidates, but could get an auto bid. Teams on the bubble should hope they do.
I listed a sampling of teams at 0%, I didn’t check every team in Division I, but anyone with a resumé worse than Alabama or Ohio State is also at zero. The dark gray are long shots, who need top results to change the resumé. That includes Michigan. Gonzaga needs to win tonight as well.
The light gray are teams that more than likely miss, but have enough comparables that you can’t rule out a selection that makes Dick Vitale or Seth Greenberg lose their minds. How will the committee view Temple? They don’t have a good traditional resumé. Everyone was talking about Monmouth and Valparaiso, but Princeton and Akron have cases that have shown slightly better chances (thanks to the better RPI). Everyone with an asterisk, by the way, had their resumé analyzed on the assumption of a loss in the conference tourney.
The light pink are right on the edge, and better hope for no more upsets, and no big results below them. Teams above them are more likely okay–but those resumés could change with a bad loss in the conference tournament.
Interestingly, it’s Lunardi’s school St. Joseph’s, and not Oregon State, who shows signs of being left out based on profile, despite a very similar RPI to the Beavers. (It’s picking up St. Joe’s 2-4 record against the top 50, and losing record against the Top 100).