Bubble Breakdown: VCU, St. Bonaventure, and South Carolina Probably Want to Avoid a Loss After Today's Madness

Today saw Michigan win in dramatic fashion, only to be outdone by Connecticut staying alive with a 4-OT win against Cincinnati. Add those to other events–Vanderbilt, Syracuse, Butler losing, and the bubble decisions are going to be tight this year.

Here are historical comps to each potential bubble team. I ran scenarios so that you can see how a win and a loss could impact. These were derived by comparing all teams from the previous 5 seasons. They were compared based on Top 25 record against RPI, Top 50 record against RPI, Top 100 record against RPI, the overall RPI Ranking, and the overall Ken Pomeroy ranking.

As you can see, the bubble could be a nightmare. Tonight, VCU can’t afford a loss to Massachusetts or their chances fall right in with several others. St. Bonaventure, despite the RPI, is not safe if they lose to Davidson, South Carolina needs to win to be safe.

Temple’s chances might be a little better, if they get some credit for winning the American. But their profile probably means they need to win tomorrow any way. I think Tulsa, despite these comparable numbers, needs to win two now for sure. I don’t think San Diego State will end up with an at-large if they don’t win the MWC this year, despite their comparables often getting selected. Wichita State and Michigan are the current cut line. Vanderbilt is very much in a nervous position. I’m not sure why people think Monmouth is in or right on the edge.