Bubble Breakdown: Oklahoma Should Be More at Risk, Indiana Still Has That Ninth Life Left
By Jason Lisk
March Madness will be starting to brew in a couple of days. We are just over two weeks from Selection Sunday. The picture near the bubble is starting to take shape and solidify. With just two weeks of regular season games left in the major conferences, and less in some mid-major leagues, I count 28 teams as being in the field. They can affect their seeding by collapsing, but they should be in. Of those, nine would currently be assigned an auto bid spot.
That leaves the following:
Almost Certainly In, Mid-Major Edition: Wofford. Short of losing their last three games, I think the Terriers are in, and even then I think they fall to a play-in game. I wrote about Wofford being a team to watch yesterday.
Don’t Collapse, High Major Edition: These teams currently profile in the 8/9 seed range. They can afford some losses, but maybe not a complete collapse. All of their comparable teams made the tourney and none had to play in Dayton.
St. John’s
Florida
Ole Miss
Baylor
Washington
Syracuse
Ohio State
NC State
Okay, so that has us to 26 at-large allocations, and 11 auto-bid allocations including Wofford from the Southern Conference and Washington from the Pac-12. That puts us at what I would consider the true bubble. A maximum of ten at-large spots, but almost certainly a number that will shrink. Last week, I wrote about how we should expect bubble shrinkage by about three spots. The at-large pool is largely concentrated in a few conferences.
You have a major conference in the Pac-12 that has only two viable at-large candidates, and is likely to produce a champion that may not otherwise be in the field. Nevada, Buffalo, and Wofford are in the field, but any other team knocking them off in the conference tourney would push them to the at-large group. Gonzaga and Houston are highly ranked, but a massive upset would shake things up. The Big East could still produce a surprise with only three at-large teams solidly in right now. And then there are some other mid-majors that have a case to go to Dayton if they lose in their tournament finals.
So you could see more like seven spots for these teams, and less if things go really crazy in Championship Week. I utilized the similar resume feature by Bart Torvik (though I did adjust the weights to more value NET/RPI rating and Resume factors) and I list the weighted odds of making it as an at-large based on projected median finish.
Oklahoma (100%): I think the comparables somewhat overstate Oklahoma’s odds, though they are still in right now. We know the committee doesn’t weight conference games differently than non-conference or early games, so the 5-10 conference split alone, versus 12-1 in non-conference, doesn’t matter. What could matter, though, is Oklahoma going a combined 0-10 against the best teams they faced in Kansas, Texas Tech, Kansas State, Iowa State, and Baylor. I think they need to beat West Virginia at home and then split against Kansas and Kansas State to be on the right side entering the Big 12 tourney.
Clemson (100%): The comparables also overstate Clemson’s chances, if you think the committee decision on Louisville last year matters. Louisville’s RPI was well within at-large range, but they lost all the games against top teams. Clemson has a home victory over Virginia Tech as the only win over a team that is solidly in the tournament field. The home game against UNC Saturday could be huge.
Texas (100%): If Texas hits their projected finish of 17-14, they will be in the field (That would require a 2-2 finish). But if they lose 3 of the next 4 to drop to 16-15 heading to Kansas City, they are in trouble. I don’t see the committee taking a 16-16 squad if they lose in the first round of the Big 12 tourney.
TCU (100%): TCU lost in triple overtime this week to West Virginia, and needs to get a big win as they host both Texas Tech and Kansas State over the next week. They can’t afford to lose both and then have to head to Austin facing another desperate team.
Alabama (95%): Alabama got a key road win at South Carolina to move to 8-7 in the SEC. They have a tough closing stretch of home games against LSU and Auburn and at Arkansas. If they go 1-2 they will be squarely on the bubble. If they win two, they will likely be in great shape. Lose out? Not advisable.
UCF (84%): It all hangs in the balance for UCF to close the season. The last three games are Quad 1 opportunities, going to Houston, playing Cincinnati at home, and playing at Temple. They can’t get swept. A win at Houston would put them in, as would a win in the other two. Going 1-2 with, say, a win at home against Cincy and no good wins in the conference tourney would still have them sweating the bubble on Selection Sunday.
Arizona State (78%): The Sun Devils close with three road games at Oregon, Oregon State, and then the rivalry game against Arizona. Finishing 1-2 probably leaves them still squarely above the bubble, while getting multiple road wins could boost them up the ranks.
VCU (62%): VCU, of course, could claim the Atlantic-10 auto bid. If they lose in the conference tournament, I think they still get an at-large, but they will be near the cut line. They’ve won nine in a row, but getting to 24-7 entering the A-10 tournament would be advisable. VCU has a road win over Texas and a neutral win over Temple, but the A-10 schedule isn’t going to boost them.
Lipscomb (62%): Lipscomb is the favorite to win the Atlantic Sun tournament. If they lose in the final, they could still have an at-large case to get to Dayton. They beat fellow bubble team TCU on the road, lost at Clemson and got swept by city rival Belmont. They would probably be just below the cut line especially if the bubble shrinks but would have to be in the conversation.
Minnesota (58%): Minnesota has now lost six of seven in the rugged Big Ten. They really need to win at Northwestern and then at least split with Purdue and Maryland to be on the right side of the bubble.
Utah State (56%): Utah State’s case comes entirely down to the home game against Nevada on Saturday. Beat the Wolf Pack and I think they are in. Lose, and they are probably in need of doing some major work in the Mountain West tournament.
Belmont (45%): Belmont has an at-large case if they do not prevail over Murray State in the Ohio Valley tournament. If the committee really is treating the Quad 1 wins as having value even if against teams just outside the Top 50, they’ve won at Lipscomb and Murray State. They haven’t lost since mid-January and should enter the OVC tourney at 25-4. A 27-5 finish with a neutral court loss to Murray State could leave them very much in the mix.
Furman (44%): Furman won at Villanova and the only non-conference loss was at LSU. They did get swept by Wofford. I think the at-large case probably involves beating Wofford on a neutral court in the semifinal but then losing a close final to UNC-Greensboro or East Tennessee State, but I’m not that confident in it. They would need lots of other things to break right.
Temple (42%): Temple probably needs to beat UCF at home in the season finale and then reach the American Conference final by beating either Cincinnati or Houston to put themselves in the field.
That ends what I think are the realistic bubble teams. These others have to pull a big upset or perhaps several.
St. Mary’s (20%): If the Gaels can pull the big upset of Gonzaga on Saturday, they completely change things. A loss there means they need to win the WCC.
San Francisco (20%): San Francisco has to beat Gonzaga in the WCC Tournament to get at-large consideration (assuming that win comes in the semifinals).
Murray State (15%): They share some similarities with Iona, who once got a surprise selection to Dayton. But I don’t see it happening for the Racers if they don’t win the OVC.
Georgetown (11%): The Hoyas need to win three of the last four and win at Marquette to realistically be in the bubble conversation.
Creighton (5%): Creighton needs to win out in the regular season, including at Marquette, to get to 18-13 and be in the tournament conversation. If they don’t do that, they will need to win the Big East tournament.
Butler (4%): Butler, like Creighton, needs to get a big road win (at Villanova) then win out to get to 18-13 to get in the at-large discussion.
Indiana (0%): If Indiana wins out, they would be right back in the bubble discussion. That would involve sweeping Michigan State with a home win this Saturday, and then beating both Illinois and Rutgers to get to 8-12 in conference and 17-14 overall, with wins over Michigan State (2x), Marquette, Wisconsin, and Louisville.
Nebraska (0%): Nebraska also needs to win out prior to the Big Ten tournament but their path is even tougher, and they’ve shown no flashes without Isaac Copeland. Nebraska plays at both Michigan and Michigan State before hosting Iowa. That’s an extremely tough gauntlet to have to run.