Listen, is it bragging to point out that I successfully predicted who would win the U.S. Open? Yeah, but it's also true, and I've got the time-stamped story to prove it.
But let's not live in the past. Let's look to the future, which is this weekend's British Open, or The Open Championship, depending on what side of the pond you hail from.
Names notwithstanding, the reason I picked Jon Rahm to win the U.S. Open a month ago was because of an interesting bit of research from our good friends over at PGA Splits, which directed me toward Rahm. Lucky for you, I'm back at it again, using the same Twitter handle for insight, which I hope leads to a payout for you the same way it did for me.
In layman's terms, the criteria for the 2021 winner based on these trends is first-time major winner, top 40-ranked golfer in the world, finished top 15 in one of his last three starts, won an international tournament within the last three years, must be 32 years old or older, played the week before and finished in the top 34 in that tournament, has a top 10 previously in The Open, has at least four career wins, played in at least four British Opens, had at least one top 5 finish that season, had four top 10s that season and played in 12 Opens.
A lot to digest, but again, that's why I'm here for you.
British Open Prediction Winning Score
First off, I think the score to win this week is 7-under-par. That might get you in a playoff. Anything below that should get it done.
British Open Betting Trend
The 32-year-old criteria combined with the top 40 ranking and never winning a major eliminated the majority of the field right away. There just aren't a lot of older players who are among the top-ranked players right now and haven't won a major before. Billy Horschel, Paul Casey, Lee Westwood, Kevin Na, Marc Leishman and Ryan Palmer fit those elements. Of them, only Casey, Westwood and Leishman have a top 10 finish at the British Open. Of those three, only Westwood played last week, but he finished T-35 and not in the top 34. What are we to do?
British Open Picks
The answer is this. I'm going to sprinkle some money ($2 to $5) on Westwood (+5000), Casey (+4000) and Leishman (+5000) to win it all this week, those odds all coming from WynnBET. Those can be our long shots. If one hits, boom, we're in the money. If they don't, we didn't break the bank.
Another pair of players I'm going to throw a little more money on ($5 to $10) because they fit a lot of these criteria outside of the age are Fleetwood (+4000) and Tyrrell Hatton (+3000). Both have a lot of success on links courses, including at the British Open, and both played well last week at the Scottish Open. Those two qualifiers stood out to me while researching this.
Yeah, that's a lot of Europeans (and one Aussie) for an American to root for, but I'm trying to win dammit and I'll save my animosity for them during the Ryder Cup (outside Leishman). For now let's hope these picks are as good as the U.S. Open picks, which will remain a bragging moment for years to come.