Bracketology, January 4: Projecting What the Bracket Will Look Like in March
By Jason Lisk
This is the first Bracketology projection on our site since the first game was played. We are largely through the non-conference schedule, conference matchups are heating up this week, and it’s time to look ahead.
My bracket projections are different than some. I try to slot teams by where I think they will end up, looking at both past results and what remains on the schedule. I went into detail on this last year, and my results from January 2017 did outperform other brackets that were released at the same time because they had a predictive element.
Looking back on my first bracket from last January (released a week later than now), I again was a little better than just looking at current resumés. You are going to have some misses, but I had one fewer team that missed the at-large field (teams seeded 11 or better) than Joe Lunardi, and my average difference compared to how the seeds ended up was a little closer (on average within 1.6 of predicted seed line). That was mainly because of some teams that collapsed, that I regressed a little more. Arizona State was a 6 seed in my projection and a 3 seed in Lunardi’s, and they collapsed even further.
The best team either of us had in, that ultimately missed, was Notre Dame (a 7 seed in Lunardi’s and a 9 in mine), and that was because of the Bonzie Colson that happened a week earlier and had a big impact on the Fighting Irish. That goes to show that if you are in the Top 25 or so projected tourney teams at this point, you are likely in (even Oklahoma and Arizona State survived disastrous finishes to the year because of early wins).
Of the seven teams that missed that I had projected in, all were near the bottom of the at-large pool (four were on the #11 seed line). Five of the ten teams I had listed just out, meanwhile, made it in. Only NC State (big wins over Duke and North Carolina to overcome an early start) and Loyola-Chicago (who got an #11 seed as the auto bid from the MVC) were not in my projected field or first ten out and got seeded 11th or better in last year’s tourney.
So who is in this year? Here are my educated guesses:
#1 SEEDS
Duke Blue Devils+
Michigan Wolverines+
Virginia Cavaliers
Kansas Jayhawks+
Duke is the best team in basketball, but Virginia could still claim the ACC title. It’s hard to pick against Kansas to win the Big 12 and get a #1 seed when they seemingly do it every year. Michigan comes in just ahead of Sparty.
#2 SEEDS
Michigan State Spartans
Gonzaga Bulldogs+
Tennessee Volunteers+
North Carolina Tar Heels
Gonzaga could have a claim for a #1 seed with their tough schedule and early win over Duke, but the guess is they end up on the 2 line. Tennessee is my pick to win the SEC and get the best positioning out of that conference, while Sparty could easily get the #1 seed. There’s no clear cut choice for the final slot so I’ll go with the Tar Heels.
#3 SEEDS
Auburn Tigers
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Nevada Wolfpack+
Virginia Tech Hokies
Nevada is currently undefeated, and if they finish that way they will be higher than this seeding. But assuming they lose a couple of games by Selection Sunday, they slot here. The other teams in this group could certainly move higher, as all play in tough conferences and will have chances for top wins.
#4 SEEDS
Kentucky Wildcats
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Florida State Seminoles
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Nebraska couldn’t make the tourney last year, but the Big Ten is going to bolster their case this season and get several teams in. Kentucky and Mississippi State are also in the mix to win the SEC.
#5 SEEDS
Oklahoma Sooners
Cincinnati Bearcats+
Ohio State Buckeyes
Iowa State Cyclones
Oklahoma is surprising again, but we saw them collapse a year ago after being off to a hot start. Cincinnati is projected to win the American in a close race over Houston.
#6 SEEDS
NC State Wolfpack
Houston Cougars
Texas Longhorns
Florida Gators
Houston would be seeded higher today, but this is projecting how their resume will look in March, once the power conferences finish playing each other. They should again garner a 6 seed.
#7 SEEDS
TCU Horned Frogs
Villanova Wildcats+
Wisconsin Badgers
Purdue Boilermakers
Villanova is in a rebuilding year. I’m projecting them to bounce back and lead the Big East by Selection Sunday, though.
#8 SEEDS
Indiana Hoosiers
Marquette Golden Eagles
Buffalo Bulls+
Creighton Blue Jays
Buffalo has an impressive resume and could move higher if they can get to 30 wins and a MAC title. The Big East logjam in the middle seeds begins.
#9 SEEDS
Seton Hall Pirates
St. John’s Red Storm
Maryland Terrapins
Central Florida Golden Knights
Central Florida and St. John’s should break tournament droughts this year, though there is work to do. Maryland should be able to get in with a much stronger Big Ten schedule than a year ago.
#10 SEEDS
Louisville Cardinals
LSU Tigers
Arizona State Sun Devils+
San Francisco Dons
Arizona State is the highest projected Pac-12 team and it is going to be tough for the conference to get more than two bids. I think the ACC strength will buoy Louisville, and they already have a big win over Michigan State that will help on Selection Sunday. San Francisco has emerged as the second-best team in the West Coast Conference. Can they get a big win over Gonzaga this month?
#11 SEEDS/ #12 SEEDS
Alabama Crimson Tide
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Arizona Wildcats
Ole Miss Running Rebels
Syracuse Orangemen
Clemson Tigers
Iowa Hawkeyes
At least one of these spots will dry up thanks to a surprise auto-bid. For now, I’m projecting a lot of ACC/SEC/Big Ten at the bubble, along with the second Pac-12 team. For now, that is Arizona. Syracuse will be in a familiar spot on Selection Sunday. Minnesota moved to a better position with a road win over Wisconsin, while Iowa is off to an 0-3 start in the Big Ten and will need to stabilize things. They likely need to go 9-8 in conference the rest of the way.
FIRST TEN OUT
Butler Bulldogs
Utah State Aggies
Oregon Ducks
Virginia Commonwealth Rams (projected as autobid from A-10 currently, borderline at-large)
Toledo Rockets
Kansas State Wildcats
Arkansas Razorbacks
Washington Huskies
St. Mary’s Gaels
Georgetown Hoyas
The remaining teams projected on the cut line include some smaller conference teams (VCU, Toledo, Utah State, and St. Mary’s) who will have chances for quality wins in their conference and will need them. Kansas State was a pre-season Top 20 pick but has struggled and battled injuries; the Big 12 is strong enough to carry them to an at-large if they turn things around. If Arizona State or Arizona falter, Oregon and Washington are the most likely beneficiaries, though Oregon is now without Bol Bol. Butler will need to finish strong in the Big East and Arkansas will have chances in the SEC.
If it’s going to be someone outside this list, it will come from the Big Ten, Big 12, or ACC as one of the teams that gets hot and gets some big wins because of the strength of the conference, and finishes .500 or better even though not currently projected to do so: Baylor, West Virginia, Northwestern, Penn State, Notre Dame, Miami.